Oscar Nomination Predictions! (UPDATED)

Hey everybody! So I just want to get this down in writing before Chris Hemsworth makes the official announcement tomorrow morning. The professional Oscar pundits out there usually get somewhere around 70 percent of the nominations correct, so let’s see if I can land within that range! To accomplish this, I must stress that these are the movies and performances that I think WILL get nominated, not necessarily the ones I WANT. I’ll do all the categories besides the documentaries and shorts, simply because I haven’t seen enough of those this past year. I’ll pick winners for those categories come Oscar night, however. Quick note, I will alphabetize all of my picks so they have no semblance of favoritism (at this point anyway). Alright, so with no further ado, here’s the names I expect to be called on Thursday!

BEST PICTURE:

  1. 12 Years A Slave
  2. American Hustle
  3. Captain Phillips
  4. Gravity
  5. Her
  6. Inside Llewyn Davis
  7. The Wolf Of Wall Street
  8. (If There are 8 nominees) Nebraska
  9. (If There are 9 nominees) Philomena
  10. (If There are 10 nominees) Dallas Buyers Club

P.S. Since the number of Best Picture nominees fluctuates each year, I picked seven definitive picks and added parameters for extra nominations.

Movies that have a chance to sneak in: Rush, Blue Jasmine, Saving Mr. Banks, The Butler

SCORE: 8/9 

Missed: Dallas Buyers Club (technically)

BEST DIRECTOR:

  1. Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
  2. David O. Russell (American Hustle)
  3. Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips)
  4. Spike Jonze (Her)
  5. Steve McQueen (12 Years A Slave)

Chance to sneak in: Martin Scorsese (The Wolf Of Wall Street), Alexander Payne (Nebraska), Joel & Ethan Coen (Inside Llewyn Davis)

SCORE: 3/5

Missed: Martin Scorsese, Alexander Payne

BEST ACTOR:

  1. Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years A Slave)
  2. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf Of Wall Street)
  3. Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
  4. Robert Redford (All Is Lost)
  5. Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips)

Chance to sneak in: Bruce Dern (Nebraska), Joaquin Phoenix (Her), Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis), Christian Bale (American Hustle), Forest Whitaker (The Butler), Michael B. Jordan (Frutivale Station)

N.B. I had Bruce Dern penciled in almost all Oscar season, but DiCaprio’s Golden Globe victory reluctantly forces me to change my mind at the last minute.

SCORE: 3/5

Missed: Bruce Dern, Christian Bale

BEST ACTRESS:

  1. Amy Adams (American Hustle)
  2. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
  3. Judi Dench (Philomena)
  4. Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
  5. Sandra Bullock (Gravity)

Chance to sneak in: Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks), Adele Exarchopoulos (Blue Is The Warmest Color)

SCORE: 5/5

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  1. Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
  2. Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
  3. Daniel Bruhl (Rush)
  4. Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
  5. Michael Fassbender (12 Years A Slave)

Chance to sneak in: James Gandolfini (Enough Said), Tom Hanks (Saving Mr. Banks)

SCORE: 4/5

Missed: Jonah Hill

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  1. Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
  2. Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
  3. Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years A Slave)
  4. Oprah Winfrey (The Butler)
  5. Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)

Chance to sneak in: June Squibb (Nebraska), Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale Station)

SCORE: 4/5

Missed: June Squibb

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

  1. American Hustle
  2. Blue Jasmine
  3. Her
  4. Inside Llewyn Davis
  5. Nebraska

Chance to sneak in: Gravity, Dallas Buyers Club

SCORE: 4/5

Missed: Dallas Buyers Club

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

  1. 12 Years A Slave
  2. Before Midnight
  3. Captain Phillips
  4. Philomena
  5. The Wolf Of Wall Street

Chance to sneak in: August: Osage County, The Spectacular Now, Lone Survivor

SCORE: 5/5

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

  1. The Croods
  2. Despicable Me 2
  3. Frozen
  4. The Wind Rises
  5. (If There Are Five) Monsters University

SCORE: 4/5

Missed: Ernest & Celestine

BEST FOREIGN FILM

  1. The Broken Circle Breakdown
  2. The Grandmaster
  3. The Great Beauty
  4. The Hunt
  5. The Past

Chance to sneak in: The Wind Rises

SCORE: 3/5

Missed: The Missing Picture, Omar

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

  1. 12 Years A Slave
  2. American Hustle
  3. Gravity
  4. The Great Gatsby
  5. The Hobbit: The Desolation Of Smaug

SCORE: 4/5

Missed: Her

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

  1. 12 Years A Slave
  2. Captain Phillips
  3. Gravity
  4. Inside Llewyn Davis
  5. Nebraska

Chance to sneak in: Her, Rush

SCORE: 3/5

Missed: The Grandmaster, Prisoners

BEST COSTUME

  1. 12 Years A Slave
  2. American Hustle
  3. The Great Gatsby
  4. The Invisible Woman
  5. Oz: The Great And Powerful

SCORE: 4/5

Missed: The Grandmaster

BEST EDITING

  1. 12 Years A Slave
  2. American Hustle
  3. Captain Phillips
  4. Gravity
  5. The Wolf Of Wall Street

SCORE: 4/5

Missed: Dallas Buyers Club

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

  1. American Hustle
  2. Dallas Buyers Club
  3. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire

Chance to sneak in: The Great Gatsby, Bad Grandpa

SCORE: 1/3

Missed: Bad Grandpa, The Lone Ranger

BEST SCORE

  1. 12 Years A Slave
  2. All Is Lost
  3. The Book Thief
  4. Gravity
  5. Saving Mr. Banks

Chance to sneak in: Her, Philomena, Rush

SCORE: 3/5

Missed: Her, Philomena

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

  1. “Happy” (Despicable Me 2)
  2. “Let It Go” (Frozen)
  3. “The Moon Song” (Her)
  4. “Ordinary Love” (Mandela: Long Walk To Freedom)
  5. “Please Mr. Kennedy” (Inside Llewyn Davis)

Chance to sneak in: “Atlas” (Hunger Games: Catching Fire), “Sweeter Than Fiction” (One Chance)

SCORE: 4/5

Missed: “Alone, Yet Not Alone”

BEST SOUND EDITING

  1. All Is Lost
  2. Captain Phillips
  3. Gravity
  4. Pacific Rim
  5. Rush

Chance to sneak in: 12 Years A Slave, Lone Survivor

SCORE: 3/5

Missed: The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Lone Survivor

BEST SOUND MIXING

  1. All Is Lost
  2. Captain Phillips
  3. Gravity
  4. Inside Llewyn Davis
  5. Rush

Chance to sneak in: Pacific Rim, 12 Years A Slave

SCORE: 3/5

Missed: The Hobbit: The Desolation Of Smaug, Lone Survivor

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

  1. Gravity
  2. The Hobbit: The Desolation Of Smaug
  3. Pacific Rim
  4. (If there are four) Iron Man 3
  5. (If there are five) World War Z

SCORE: 3/5

Missed: The Lone Ranger, Star Trek Into Darkness

So that’s what I’ve got for Chris Hemsworth to say tomorrow! We’ll see how everything turns out, I’ll update the post with my winning percentage after the nominations are announced. Thanks for reading, hopefully your predictions go well too! See you tomorrow for the next edition of the Billboard Hot 100 analysis!

UPDATE:

TOTAL SCORE:  75/102

Percentage Correct: 73.5

So that’s about right in line with the top pundits’ scores from last year, so I’m quite happy with the performance of my choices! Be sure to check back right before the Oscars for my winner selections!

Until then,

Ryan

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