Billboard Hot 100 Analysis: 3/27/2014

 

Welcome back for another analysis of the Billboard Hot 100! Here’s all you need to know about the chart released today.

THIS WEEK’S TOP TEN

  1. Happy by Pharrell Williams
  2. All Of Me by John Legend
  3. Dark Horse by Katy Perry f/Juicy J
  4. Talk Dirty by Jason Derulo f/2 Chainz
  5. Let It Go by Idina Menzel
  6. Pompeii by Bastille
  7. Team by Lorde
  8. Counting Stars by OneRepublic
  9. The Man by Aloe Blacc
  10. Drunk In Love by Beyoncé f/Jay-Z

All ten songs have been here before, but there’s two intriguing storylines this week. First of all, “All Of Me” reaches the runner-up position, bringing John Legend as close as possible to becoming the fourth artist to hit #1 armed with nothing more than a voice and a piano. At #5, “Let It Go” roars to a new peak, bolstered by the March 18th relesae of the Frozen DVD/Blu-Ray. As such, this week was the soundtrack’s highest-selling week yet, leading to a seventh nonconsecutive week atop the Billboard Albums chart.

BIGGEST MOVERS THIS WEEK

28 Spots: Play It Again by Luke Bryan (81-53)

24 Spots: Who Do You Love? by YG f/Drake (78-54)

21 Spots: La La La by Naughty Boy f/Sam Smith (60-39)

21 Spots: I Luh Ya Papi by Jennifer Lopez f/French Montana (98-77)

20 Spots: For The First Time In Forever by Kristen Bell & Idina Menzel (85-65)

19 Spots: Let It Go by Demi Lovato (71-52)

17 Spots: Do You Want To Build A Snowman by Kristen Bell et al. (79-62)

17 Spots: Ain’t It Fun by Paramore (63-46)

15 Spots: Not A Bad Thing by Justin Timberlake (42-27)

  1. With a massive jump in its second week, Bryan is well on his way to collecting his 7th Country #1 single in the past four years.
  2. With My Krazy Life debuting at #2 this week on the Albums chart, YG sees his second single from the album leap towards the Top 50.
  3. In just three weeks, the British chart-topper has gone from mediocrity at #83 to a bona fide Top 40 hit. We’ll see if it can beat “Love Me Again”‘s peak of #30.
  4. The release of the music video last week drives second week sales for J. Lo’s newest offering.
  5. Frozen.
  6. Frozen.
  7. Frozen. As the soundtrack registers its largest sales week yet, the other three singles follow Menzel’s lead and see large chart bumps, even as the first official week of spring begins.
  8. Make that three weeks in a row on this list for Paramore, who seem poised to log their 6th career Top 40 hit.
  9. Last week, I said that a music video release could knock JT’s newest single into the Top 30. Well, it came out over the weekend, and the jump happened exactly like that. Make that 5 Top 40s now off of The 20/20 Experience

HOT 100 DEBUTS THIS WEEK

“Summer” by Calvin Harris (#69)

  • Finally giving up on single from 18 Months, Calvin Harris puts out his first new material in almost two years. Aptly named given the improving temperatures outside, “Summer” is a banger and easily gains Top Debut status this week.
  • Best Case Scenario: The apropos release date combined with the new source material make “Summer” a summer hit, just like “Let’s Go” in 2012. It could peak somewhere in the teens if the stars align.
  • Worst Case Scenario: I don’t anticipate this happening, but the big first-week sales could drop off dramatically, and send “Summer” on a swift decline off the charts.

“Lookin’ For That Girl” by Tim McGraw (#96)

  • McGraw’s debut this week extends one of the most impressive streaks in Hot 100 history. With this appearance, the country superstar has now registered a single on the Hot 100 in each of the past 21 years. He first hit the charts with “Indian Outlaw” in 1994.
  • Best Case Scenario:  Like “Highway Don’t Care” or “Southern Girl,” McGraw continues to show that he’s capable of routinely hitting the Top 50.
  • Worst Case Scenario: The crowded country charts prevent McGraw from gaining ground on the charts, and it flounders in the 80s and 90s, much like Kenny Chesney’s “When I See This Bar” last year.

“Beating Heart” by Ellie Goulding (#98)

  • It’s been a banner year for soundtrack singles, so it makes sense that the first single from Divergent makes its way onto the charts this week. Goulding lent her voice to the score of the film as well, so it makes sense that she also is the face of the soundtrack.
  • Best Case Scenario: Like Taylor Swift’s “Safe & Sound” from The Hunger Games, it has the potential to make the Top 40 if the fanbase proves as enthusiastic as they were in 2012.
  • Worst Case Scenario: Like “Atlas” from the second Hunger Games movie, the song debuts the weekend after the movie makes its debut, then falls immediately off the charts.

Easy job this week in picking the biggest hit. With only three songs debuting, my odds are already good. I have no doubt in my mind that “Summer” will be the biggest out of this group. It’s catchy, timely, and a fresh track from a big name, all of which are key ingredients to making a seasonal record stick on the charts. This is the time when people start wanting to listen to the radio with their windows down, so why not Calvin Harris to make that happen?

#1 SONGS ON THE GENRE CHARTS

  • POP: Happy by Pharrell Williams (#1 on Hot 100)
  • COUNTRY: This Is How We Roll by Florida Georgia Line f/Luke Bryan (#26 on Hot 100)
  • ROCK: Pompeii by Bastille (#6 on Hot 100)
  • ALTERNATIVE: Do I Wanna Know? by Arctic Monkeys (#76 on Hot 100)
  • R&B/HIP-HOP: Happy by Pharrell Williams (#1 on Hot 100)
  • RAP: Timber by Pitbull f/Ke$ha (#11 on Hot 100)
  • DANCE/ELECTRONIC: #SELFIE by The Chainsmokers (#16 on Hot 100)
  • LATIN: Odio by Romeo Santos f/Drake (#94 on Hot 100)

FINAL THOUGHTS

  1. Dropping completely off the charts this week, Soko’s “We Might Be Dead By Tomorrow” becomes the first single in Billboard Hot 100 history to be in the Top 10 one week, and then completely fall off the charts the next week. Looks like this viral video was short-lived.
  2. As I said last week, three months are in the books! Here’s a look at the 25 songs that have earned the most points in 2014 via my ranking system:

 

  1. Dark Horse (Katy Perry)
  2. Counting Stars (OneRepublic)
  3. Timber (Pitbull)
  4. Say Something (A Great Big World)
  5. Let Her Go (Passenger)
  6. Drunk In Love (Beyoncé)
  7. Team (Lorde)
  8. The Monster (Eminem)
  9. Pompeii (Bastille)
  10. Royals (Lorde)
  11. Story Of My Life (One Direction)
  12. Burn (Ellie Goulding)
  13. Demons (Imagine Dragons)
  14. Wake Me Up! (Avicii)
  15. Roar (Katy Perry)
  16. Show Me (Kid Ink)
  17. Talk Dirty (Jason Derulo)
  18. Let It Go (Idina Menzel)
  19. My Hitta (YG)
  20. Wrecking Ball (Miley Cyrus)
  21. All Of Me (John Legend)
  22. Hold On, We’re Going Home (Drake)
  23. Radioactive (Imagine Dragons)
  24. Happy (Pharrell Williams)
  25. Best Day Of My Life (American Authors)

I purposely left out the point values to keep you guys in suspense for the year-end report, but we’ll see which of these songs stay in the Top 25 when I do this again at the end of June!

That’s all for this week! I’ll be back on Thursday with a look at the next edition of the Hot 100. More predictions and analysis coming at you in a week!

Until then,

Ryan

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