Billboard Hot 100 Analysis: 4/10/2014

 

Welcome back for another analysis of the Billboard Hot 100! Here’s all you need to know about the chart released today.

THIS WEEK’S TOP TEN

  1. Happy by Pharrell Williams
  2. All Of Me by John Legend
  3. Dark Horse by Katy Perry f/Juicy J
  4. Talk Dirty by Jason Derulo f/2 Chainz
  5. Let It Go by Idina Menzel
  6. Pompeii by Bastille
  7. Team by Lorde
  8. Counting Stars by OneRepublic
  9. The Man by Aloe Blacc
  10. Turn Down For What by DJ Snake & Lil Jon

Once again, the top seven songs remain stationary this week, as Pharrell logs his seventh consecutive week atop the Hot 100 with “Happy.” However, “All Of Me” gained the chart’s Airplay Gainer and Streaming Gainer awards, closing the gap between the two songs. Will John Legend reach #1 in the coming weeks? I’d say it’s about a 50/50 shot, but continued airplay could easily snag him the honor. With all of the Top 10 from last week returning today, I’ll go slightly underneath the top region for some added analysis. Sitting at 11 and 12, American Authors’ “Best Day Of My Life” and Chris Brown’s “Loyal” (respectively) make sales gainsRising 20-14, Justin Timberlake’s “Not A Bad Thing” is in a good position to make a run at becoming The 20/20 Experience‘s third Top 10. With the static nature of the Top 10 in these past few weeks, don’t be surprised if all three of those songs find their way there in the near future.

BIGGEST MOVERS THIS WEEK

25 Spots: Wild Wild Love by Pitbull f/G.R.L. (82-57)

22 Spots: Me And My Broken Heart by Rixton (87-65)

18 Spots: Classic by MKTO (65-47)

17 Spots: Human by Christina Perri (49-32)

14 Spots: Play It Again by Luke Bryan (40-26)

14 Spots: Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX (70-56)

  1. Prompted by last week’s music video release, Pitbull’s latest single gets the week’s biggest boost. It’s still unclear if “Wild Wild Love” will be a standalone single, or a teaser for a forthcoming album.
  2. Second-week jumps are becoming rare in genres outside of country music, so it’s interesting to see the British band’s single receive such a positive continued response.
  3. With across-the-board games, the California duo see a nice bump for their maiden chart effort. I picked this as a sleeper hit a while back, and its prospects are looking good thus far.
  4. Following Head Or Heart‘s #4 debut on the Albums chart this week, the album’s lead single grants Perri her third career Top 40 single.
  5. Luke Bryan’s endeavor to replace himself at #1 on the Country Songs chart takes an extremely positive turn this week as “Play It Again” rockets to #3 on the Country chart. The only other song in his way is “Bottoms Up” by Brantley Gilbert, which already topped the Country charts.
  6. An identical jump for the young Aussie brings her ever closer to securing her first Top 40 single.

HOT 100 DEBUTS THIS WEEK

She Looks So Perfect” by 5 Seconds Of Summer (#60)

  • Following in One Direction’s footsteps (literally), the Aussie boy band gets Top Debut this week with the titular track off their inaugural EP which debuted at #2 this week on the Albums chart. The group toured with 1D last summer, so this ode to teenage love is catering to the exact same fanbase.
  • Best Case Scenario: Summer’s right around the corner, and this song’s debut mirrors that of “What Makes You Beautiful.” I don’t think it will get that big, but peaking in the Top 20 is not out of the question.
  • Worst Case Scenario: The EP’s strong debut provides its only spark, and the track ebbs off the charts within three weeks.

Stay With Me” by Sam Smith (#68)

  • The 21-year-old Brit is one of the hottest names out there right now. He already was on the Hot 100 twice as the featured voice on “La La La” and “Latch”, but his recent performance on SNL leads to a strong debut for “Stay With Me.” The track trades in the fast beats of his featured credits for a sparsely-instrumented ballad.
  • Best Case Scenario:  The song showcases his vocal ability, but it’s not as catchy as “La La La”. I’ll be surprised if it peaks any higher than #50.
  • Worst Case Scenario: The SNL wave fades quickly, and “Stay With Me” fails to stay with the Hot 100 for more than another week or two.

Come With Me Now” by KONGOS (#98)

  • Released in 2011, the breakout single for the South African siblings finally makes it bow Stateside. The zydeco-infused rock track is insanely catchy, and currently tops the Alternative Songs chart, continuing that chart’s obsessions with re-discovering songs released many moons ago.
  • Best Case Scenario: This song has sleeper hit written all over it, and it’s already accomplished the hardest part by conquering Alternative Radio. I can easily see this song slowly climbing its way towards the Top 40.
  • Worst Case Scenario: Like “Do I Wanna Know,” the song remains on the chart for a few months, but is unable to expand upon its peak by much (i.e. stuck in the 70s or 80s somewhere).

 

The wildcard here is the performance of “She Looks So Perfect”. My gut feeling tells me that it won’t expand upon its high debut. That being said, it’s the beginning of boy band season, so anything is possible. Even so, I’m picking the South Africans this week! “Come With Me Now” has been one of my most-listened tracks over the past two months, and I think that it really has the potential to do something special on the charts this summer.

#1 SONGS ON THE GENRE CHARTS

  • POP: Happy by Pharrell Williams (#1 on Hot 100)
  • COUNTRY: This Is How We Roll by Florida Georgia Line f/Luke Bryan (#22 on Hot 100)
  • ROCK: Pompeii by Bastille (#6 on Hot 100)
  • ALTERNATIVE: Come With Me Now by KONGOS (#98 on Hot 100)
  • R&B/HIP-HOP: Happy by Pharrell Williams (#1 on Hot 100)
  • RAP: Timber by Pitbull f/Ke$ha (#13 on Hot 100)
  • DANCE/ELECTRONIC: Turn Down For What by DJ Snake & Lil Jon (#10 on Hot 100)
  • LATIN: Odio by Romeo Santos f/Drake (#99 on Hot 100)

FINAL THOUGHTS

  1. Following a lengthy stay in the Top 10, including a record nine-week gap between stints at #1, Miley Cyrus’s “Wrecking Ball” finally bids adieu to the Hot 100 this week as it slips below #50.
  2. Last Saturday, Pharrell celebrated his 41st birthday, celebrating with the continued reign of “Happy.” The last time an artist held the #1 spot on their birthday was in November, when Lorde’s 17th birthday coincided with the nine-week tenure of “Royals.”

 

That’s all for this week! I’ll be back on Thursday with a look at the next edition of the Hot 100. More predictions and analysis coming at you in a week!

Until then,

Ryan

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