Billboard Hot 100 Analysis: 5/29/2014

Welcome back for another analysis of the Billboard Hot 100! Here’s all you need to know about the chart released today.

THIS WEEK’S TOP TEN

  1. Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX
  2. Problem by Ariana Grande f/Iggy Azalea
  3. All Of Me by John Legend
  4. Happy by Pharrell Williams
  5. Turn Down For What by DJ Snake & Lil Jon
  6. Dark Horse by Katy Perry f/Juicy J
  7. Talk Dirty by Jason Derulo f/2 Chainz
  8. Am I Wrong by Nico & Vinz
  9. Not A Bad Thing by Justin Timberlake
  10. Wiggle by Jason Derulo f/Snoop Dogg

It’s a big week for the ladies this week in the Top 10. After a slow but steady climb, “Fancy” finds its way to the top as the new chart-topper and de facto first candidate for “Song of the Summer.” For Azalea and Charli XCX, both gain their first career #1 single as “Fancy” earns the Digital, Airplay, and Streaming Gainer awards this week. Both artists are also 90s kids, and they become second and third in the rankings of artists with #1 singles born most recently (Lorde’s 1996 birthday still has them beat). With the song continuing to gain on nearly every format, the odds of an extended, even “Blurred Lines”-esque reign at the top could be possible this summer. The only immediate threat to “Fancy”‘s supremacy is Grande’s “Problem,” which is also on an upward trend. Since Azalea features on “Problem,” she becomes the first artist to simultaneously hold down the top two places on the Hot 100 with her two chart appearances since a little group called The Beatles 50 years ago. The Aussie rapper continues to find herself in unprecedented chart territory as her meteoric rise continues.

Further down on the chart, we welcome two new entries to the Top 10 this week. At #10, Jason Derulo’s follow-up to “Talk Dirty” is proving to be just as much of a viral hit. In four short weeks, “Wiggle” bounded from its debut in the 60s into the Top 10, a journey even shorter than that of “Talk Dirty.” At #8, “Am I Wrong” enters the uppermost region in its sixth week on the chart. For a previously unknown act, this kind of chart run is very rare, especially considering that the popularity increase for the Norwegian duo’s debut single has been very organic. Not featuring a flashy video or any viral tendencies, the song’s easy groove has found a home on pop radio and is quickly making summer stars out of Nico & Vinz.

 

BIGGEST MOVERS THIS WEEK

86+ Spots: Billie Jean by Michael Jackson (re-enters at #14)

35 Spots: Love Runs Out by OneRepublic (69-34)

18 Spots: Stay With Me by Sam Smith (49-31)

18 Spots: Raging Fire by Phillip Phillips (88-70)

14 Spots: Chandelier by Sia (62-48)

14 Spots: Work by Iggy Azalea (77-63)

  1. Following the brief popularity of a viral video featuring a high school talent show participant emulating Jackson’s moves, the 1983 chart-topper makes a return to the Hot 100 after a 31-year break. This happened a few times last year with songs like “Livin’ On A Prayer” and “Thriller”, and is a byproduct of Billboard’s consideration of YouTube data. Don’t expect “Billie Jean” to show up on the Hot 100 next week.
  2. Showing incredible resilience, the newest OneRepublic is showing new life in its second stint on the Hot 100, leapfrogging half of the chart to become the Colorado band’s 8th Top 40 single, as well as the third from Native.
  3. As the ballad continues to leap up the chart, Sam Smith earns a very interesting chart curiosity. With “Latch” ringing in this week at #29 and “La La La” right behind at #30, Smith now has a claim to three consecutive spots on the Hot 100.
  4. Similar to “Love Runs Out,” Phillips’ newest single is making the most of its new life on the Hot 100, as it inches closer to its initial peak from its one-and-done debut in March.
  5. As the video for “Chandelier” featuring 11-year-old dancer Maddie Ziegler continues to rack up millions of views on YouTube, Sia earns her first trip into the Top 50 as a lead artist.
  6. While “Fancy” and “Problem” are looking down at the rest of the chart, Azalea’s re-released single from last year is showing signs of potential as it tries to make Iggy a perfect 3 for 3 in Top 40 hits to start her career. She’s got a while to go to match Rihanna’s career-launching streak of 15 consecutive Top 40 singles, and even farther to match Mariah Carey’s mark of 24 straight.

HOT 100 DEBUTS THIS WEEK

Somethin’ Bad” by Miranda Lambert w/Carrie Underwood (#39)

  • There was a time about eight years ago when Lambert and Underwood were the young, fresh faces of country music. They’re both over 30 now, but that hasn’t stopped them from remaining the two most successful female country acts. This teamup represents Lambert’s highest debut yet, and Underwood’s highest since her American Idol days. The song has a lot of energy, and the two ladies’ voices blend very well together. Look for this song to rise even higher, and hopefully make a push to make Lambert and Underwood the first females to top the Country charts since Miranda herself shared billing with Keith Urban on “We Were Us” in November.

Slave To The Rhythm” by Michael Jackson (#45)

  • Registering his second high debut in a month, Jackson sees another single from his posthumous album Xscape hit the Hot 100. This was the catchy and funky song with the hologram performance from the Billboard Music Awards, so the buzz surrounding that corresponds with its appearance here. As the attention wanes this week, I would expect “Slave To The Rhythm” to fall right off the Hot 100 by next week.

Pills N Potions” by Nicki Minaj (#47)

  • Having finally run out of ways to re-release and crank out single from Pink Friday, Minaj tries to reinvent her image and style with “Pills N Potions,” her first charting single in nearly a year and a half. Despite the very typical title, the track is more of an R&B song than anything else, and verges on the cusp of monotone throughout. Kudos to Nicki for trying to expand her artistry and try something new, but unfortunately it just doesn’t cut it for an R&B landscape that has never been deeper. Don’t expect “Pills N Potions” to peak any higher than it already has, and it will likely be off the chart in a few weeks.

Somebody That I Used To Know” by Christina Grimmie & Adam Levine (#66) AND “Can’t Help Falling In Love” by Christina Grimmie (#74)

  • Even though Grimmie finished third in Season 6 of The Voice, her performances from the finale are the only ones which make the Hot 100 this week. As with all Voice covers, nothing, not even a duet with coach Adam Levine, will keep these songs on the Hot 100 for another week. And with that, we bid farewell to another season of The Voice. We’ll see more chart entries in the fall when Season 7 hits NBC.

Bartender” by Lady Antebellum (#78)

  • Lady A are continuing to experiment with a more pop-friendly sound than their earlier hits featured. The band clearly has a lot of fun with the uptempo “Bartender,” and response to this new sound has been reasonably favorable. While “Compass” was a bit of a chart disappointment, “Bartender” has the potential to click on country radio and come closer to the success of last year’s single “Downtown,” which peaked in the Top 30.

Leave Your Lover” by Sam Smith (#92)

  • Suddenly thrust into the limelight, Smith leads all artists this week with four entries on the Hot 100. “Leave Your Lover” is a very slow ballad lacking the mass appeal of “Stay With Me,” but it once again showcases the young Brit’s formidable vocal talents. At best, the track could peak somewhere in the 50s, but I’m betting that it won’t get any higher than #80.

Dare (La La La)” by Shakira (#95)

  • For single #3 from Shakira’s self-titled album, Shakira dips back into the pop-friendly sound which made her an international star in the mid-2000s. Featuring witty lyrics and a very catchy hook, “Dare” adds a little bit of hip-hop to her “Hips Don’t Lie” sound. With “Empire” continuing to climb the Hot 100, Shakira might crowd herself out, but “Dare” has Top 40 potential.

 

It’s been quite awhile since I’ve picked a country song from amongst the debuting tracks, but my gut tells me to go with Lambert and Underwood this week. Historically, country duets have become a huge radio favorite (as “Highway Don’t Care” last summer or “This Is How We Roll” right now have proven), so “Somethin’ Bad” could very well fulfill that role this summer. I think the odds of it reaching the Top 20 are fairly good, and the prospects for chart longevity are solid. Alternatively, be on the look out for “Bartender” and “Dare”, as they are the only other debuting tracks this week which I think has a good chance at increasing its rank next week.

#1 SONGS ON THE GENRE CHARTS

  • POP: Not A Bad Thing by Justin Timberlake (#9 on Hot 100)
  • COUNTRY: Play It Again by Luke Bryan (#18 on Hot 100)
  • ROCK: Ain’t It Fun by Paramore (#11 on Hot 100)
  • ALTERNATIVE: Fever by The Black Keys (not currently on Hot 100)
  • R&B/HIP-HOP: Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX (#1 on Hot 100)
  • RAP: Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX (#2 on Hot 100)
  • DANCE/ELECTRONIC: Turn Down For What by DJ Snake & Lil Jon (#5 on Hot 100)
  • LATIN: Bailando by Enrique Iglesias (#76 on Hot 100)

FINAL THOUGHTS

  1. American Idol has been on a rapid decline over the past few years, and it may just have hit its lowest point. For the first time in its 13 seasons on FOX, the champion’s coronation single failed to reach the Hot 100, as Caleb Johnson’s “As Long As You Love Me” doesn’t make a dent on the charts this week. It looks like Scotty McCreery and Phillip Phillips might be the last true stars to come out of Idol, as more and more viewers change the channel to watch their favorite coaches on The Voice.

 

That’s all for this week! I’ll be back on Thursday with a look at the next edition of the Hot 100. More predictions and analysis coming at you in a week!

Until then,

Ryan

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