Billboard Hot 100 Analysis: 6/5/2014

Welcome back for another analysis of the Billboard Hot 100! Here’s all you need to know about the chart released today.

THIS WEEK’S TOP TEN

  1. Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX
  2. Problem by Ariana Grande f/Iggy Azalea
  3. All Of Me by John Legend
  4. Turn Down For What by DJ Snake & Lil Jon
  5. Happy by Pharrell Williams
  6. Am I Wrong by Nico & Vinz
  7. Dark Horse by Katy Perry f/Juicy J
  8. Rude by MAGIC!
  9. Summer by Calvin Harris
  10. Wiggle by Jason Derulo f/Snoop Dogg

The top three places remain stationary this week, as the 90s girls maintain their stranglehold atop the charts. A little further down, “Turn Down For What” incredibly reaches a new peak in its 23rd week on the chart, a feat almost unheard for a song that owes its popularity to viral success. At #6, Norwegian duo Nico & Vinz continue to ride high with their debut US hit, as “Am I Wrong” climbs to #6.

Two new entries also grace the Top 10 this week. At #8, Candian pop/reggae band MAGIC! make their first single their first Top 10, as “Rude” bounds 17-8 in just its sixth week on the Hot 100. Reggae is quite a summery genre, so look for continued upward movement in the coming weeks. One rung lower at #9, Calvin Harris scores his third career Top 10 with “Summer.” Excluding his featured credit on Rihanna’s 2011 #1 smash “We Found Love,” “Summer” becomes Harris’ highest-charting effort to date as lead artist, passing the #10 peak of “Sweet Nothing” last spring.

 

BIGGEST MOVERS THIS WEEK

20 Spots: Dare (La La La) by Shakira (95-75)

19 Spots: 2 On by Tinashe f/ScHoolboy Q (75-56)

17 Spots: Bailando by Enrique Iglesias (76-59)

15 Spots: We Are Tonight by Billy Currington (83-68)

14 Spots: Drunk On A Plane by Dierks Bentley (79-65)

 

  1. Continuing a common trend for her 2014 singles, Shakira’s latest hit sees a sizable spike in its second week on the Hot 100.
  2. DJ Mustard strikes again, as Tinashe’s debut single bounds into the 50s, simultaneously giving ScHoolboy Q his second-highest chart effort to date.
  3. Iglesias scores his first crossover Spanish-language hit, as “Bailando” is showing considerable Hot 100 legs. Chalk it up to name recognition and a catchy summer beat.
  4. Following a few disappointing weeks stuck in the 80s, the eponymous single from Currington’s We Are Tonight album finally is connecting on country radio just in time.
  5. Ditto for Bentley’s newest single. This song is far from inspired, but it appears to be getting the airplay we’ve come to expect from Bentley’s string of hits.

HOT 100 DEBUTS THIS WEEK

“Good Girls” by 5 Seconds Of Summer (#34)

  • For the third time in the past two months, the Aussie boys earn Top Debut honors with another single from their debut EP. I’m starting to notice that their songs all follow a similar formula, so it appears that they’re already beginning to run out of fresh material. With “She Looks So Perfect” continuing to rise up the charts, look for “Good Girls” to fall sharply in its second week on the charts, much in the manner of their other single “Don’t Stop.”

“Believe Me” by Lil Wayne f/Drake (#36)

  • These two guys just never stop working together, do they? I think this makes 19 or 20 times now that they’ve appeared together on a Hot 100 single. This song feels very recycled though, with a sound-alike beat to “Started From The Bottom” and raps that don’t exactly stick their landing. It also drags on for well over 5 minutes, so I don’t think “Believe Me” will peak any higher than #30. Look for the high debut to be the peak of popularity for the single.

“Habits (Stay High)” by Tove Lo (#66)

  • The debut US single for the Swedish ambient pop artist exists in two forms, owing to its very respectable debut. The more conventional Icona Pop-esque version shares chart points with the ethereal Habits remix, featuring a heavily-distorted vocal track. The latter version has become a favorite background song for sports-themed Vines, possibly helping its appearance here. The song isn’t bad, but most Vine-driven songs don’t last very long on the charts, so look for it to not rise any higher than its debut position.

“Shades Of Cool” by Lana Del Rey (#79)

  • Del Rey is back with her second single from the forthcoming Ultraviolence album. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: I just don’t get the whole fascination with Lana Del Rey. “Shades Of Cool” never seems to go anywhere, remaining mired in a quite monotonous low tempo slog. Previous single “West Coast” fell all the way off the Hot 100 the week after a Top 20 debut, so I’m betting that a similar one-and-done fate is in the cards for this track.

“Trumpets” by Jason Derulo (#87)

  • Heading back to the more traditional pop sounds of “The Other Side” and “Marry Me,” Derulo’s fifth charting effort from Talk Dirty sounds more like the Jason Derulo we knew in 2010 and 2011. This falsetto-filled love song would have worked better for him back then, as his fanbase is looking more for the raunchy “Wiggle” than this very saccharine new single. I don’t see “Trumpets” peaking any higher than #50, and it could easily be off the charts in a few weeks.

“XO” by John Mayer (#90)

  • It’s been quite a while since Mayer had a bona fide hit, although he continues to appear on the Hot 100 with great regularity. “XO” adds to that stretch of chart mediocrity, debuting on the chart although it doesn’t really show us anything new. It’s a cover of the Beyoncé single from earlier this year, swapping the reggaeton feel of the earlier version with a folksy jaunt. Acoustic guitars, piano, and John Mayer’s trademark voice, and nothing more. This won’t exactly get people in the mood to party this summer, so look for “XO” to linger in the low 70s and upper 80s for a while before falling off the Hot 100 rather rapidly.

“I Got A Car” by George Strait (#96)

  • George Strait is likely the longest-tenured country artist of all time, as he’s been topping the country charts for over 30 years. He shows no signs of stopping either, as he follows up 2013 #1 single “Give It All We Got Tonight” with another charting effort in 2014. Released just in time for summer airplay, “I Got A Car” continues his trend of singing songs written about far-younger protagonists, a good idea for the 62-year-old Strait. Country radio will absolutely play this song plentifully throughout the summer, so look for it to peak somewhere in the 50s.

“Meanwhile Back At Mama’s” by Tim McGraw f/Faith Hill (#100)

  • Contemporary country music’s original power couple (sorry Blake and Miranda) returns to the charts together 17 years after “It’s Your Love” started it all. Fortunately for McGraw, there’s mercifully no Auto-Tune like there was in “Looking For That Girl,” as he returns to a shuffle country beat in the vein of “Just To See You Smile.” This retro sound should pay dividends for McGraw, who is in need of a follow-up summer hit to “Highway Don’t Care.” Faith Hill’s appearance will help garner interest for this song on the radio, and it’s easy groove gives it potential to peak in the Top 50 if everything works out well.

 

With the exception of the debuts from country legends Strait and McGraw, all of the other debuting singles have a high probability of falling steeply from their debut positions. Thus, my pick this week will necessarily be a high-risk proposition. I can safely cross out the new efforts from 5 Seconds of Summer and Lana Del Rey, since they’ve already proven this year that their high debuts often go unrequited. I honestly don’t see any of these songs spending any time anywhere near the Top 40, but if any of them had potential, I’d say “Believe Me” could stick around awhile purely on the strength of Lil Wayne and Drake’s name recognition. Other than that, “Meanwhile Back At Mama’s” has the best chance of becoming a summer radio hit.

#1 SONGS ON THE GENRE CHARTS

  • POP: Not A Bad Thing by Justin Timberlake (#11 on Hot 100)
  • COUNTRY: Play It Again by Luke Bryan (#16 on Hot 100)
  • ROCK: Ain’t It Fun by Paramore (#12 on Hot 100)
  • ALTERNATIVE: Fever by The Black Keys (not currently on Hot 100)
  • R&B/HIP-HOP: Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX (#1 on Hot 100)
  • RAP: Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX (#1 on Hot 100)
  • DANCE/ELECTRONIC: Turn Down For What by DJ Snake & Lil Jon (#4 on Hot 100)
  • LATIN: Bailando by Enrique Iglesias (#59 on Hot 100)

FINAL THOUGHTS

  1. Spending a 23rd consecutive week in the T0p 10, “Dark Horse” sets a new career-best mark for Katy Perry. Perry’s only other single to spend 20+ weeks in the Top 10 was “E.T.” which spent 22 weeks in the Top 10 throughout the summer of 2011. It doesn’t look like “Birthday” will have the legs to reach the Top 10, so it looks like her 2010-2012 stretch of  69 consecutive weeks with at least one single in the Top 10 won’t be challenged this time around.

 

That’s all for this week! I’ll be back on Thursday with a look at the next edition of the Hot 100. More predictions and analysis coming at you in a week!

Until then,

Ryan

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