Billboard Hot 100 Analysis: 6/12/2014

Welcome back for another analysis of the Billboard Hot 100! Here’s all you need to know about the chart released today.

THIS WEEK’S TOP TEN

  1. Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX
  2. Problem by Ariana Grande f/Iggy Azalea
  3. All Of Me by John Legend
  4. Turn Down For What by DJ Snake & Lil Jon
  5. Wiggle by Jason Derulo f/Snoop Dogg
  6. Happy by Pharrell Williams
  7. Rude by MAGIC!
  8. Am I Wrong by Nico & Vinz
  9. Summer by Calvin Harris
  10. Stay With Me by Sam Smith

Anchored by “Fancy” and “Problem” reprising their peak positions for a third consecutive week, places 1-4 and 6-9 remain relatively stationary this week.

At the multiples of 5, however, two big moves occur today. Rising 10-5, Jason Derulo’s second consecutive novelty single “Wiggle” becomes his second consecutive Top 5 hit as well. “Wiggle” gives Derulo his fourth appearance in the Top 5, and grants Snoop Dogg his eighth. Jumping 19-10, Sam Smith’s “Stay With Me” continues to be a swiftly-gaining surprise hit, granting the young Brit his first Top 10 single in America. His album In The Lonely Hour is due to hit shelves in less than two weeks, so look for early sales to continue bumping “Stay With Me” towards the top of the charts.

 

BIGGEST MOVERS THIS WEEK

36 Spots: Somethin’ Bad by Miranda Lambert & Carrie Underwood (91-55)

31 Spots: Bartender by Lady Antebellum (77-46)

31 Spots: Trumpets by Jason Derulo (87-56)

23 Spots: Drunk On A Plane by Dierks Bentley (65-42)

21 Spots: Come Get It Bae by Pharrell Williams (99-78)

 

  1. The roller coaster ride is on for this superstar duet. Following a 52-place tumble last week, “Somethin’ Bad” rebounds 36 places this week as increased airplay nearly offsets the inital sales decline.
  2. After two weeks hovering in the 70s, Lady A’s new uptempo single finally catches on with country radio just in time for summer, already besting the peak of “Compass” last fall.
  3. I wasn’t expecting this, but it looks like Derulo’s more traditional pop single is garnering just as much attention as his higher-charting raunchy hits.
  4. Country radio just can’t resist Dierks Bentley in the summertime, and “Drunk On A Plane” is quickly soaring its way up the charts in a bid to become Bentley’s 11th Country #1 single.
  5. Following a live YouTube-streamed concert from the Apollo Theater last week, Pharrell’s follow-up to “Happy” is starting to show some life, reaching a new peak in its second stint on the Hot 100.

HOT 100 DEBUTS THIS WEEK

“Boom Clap” by Charli XCX (#62)

  • 2014 has been a big year for soundtrack songs, and Charli XCX earns her first Hot 100 appearance as lead artist with her single from The Fault In Our Stars‘ soundtrack. The uptempo track plays as the protagonists arrive in Amsterdam, and is easily the stand-out track from the album. Since Fault likely won’t reprise its distinction as the #1 movie in America this weekend, look for sales of “Boom Clap” to falter in coming weeks. I don’t seeing it peaking any higher than its current position.

“I’m Not The Only One” by Sam Smith (#69)

  • A couple of months ago, barely anybody knew who Sam Smith was outside of the U.K. Now, still two weeks before his debut album drops, the young Brit has his fifth Hot 100 appearance in four months. Since it’s not an official single, I expect it to drop off the chart by next week. Nonetheless, it’s an impressive achievement, and the track could return to the charts after In The Lonely Hour sales kick in.

“Ultraviolence” by Lana Del Rey (#70)

  • Another week, another monotonous and wholly uninteresting debut for Lana Del Rey. This week, it’s the title track from the album which will finally be released tomorrow. I see no reason why Del Rey won’t complete the hat trick with a third one-and-done Hot 100 single this week.

“Day Drinking” by Little Big Town (#87)

  • Ever since “Pontoon” ruled the summer of 2012, Little Big Town hasn’t had a real hit on their hands. Their attempt to secure another summer anthem hits the charts this week as “Day Drinking'” bows. Featuring whistling, a mid-tempo hook and not much else, there are too many other eligible summer country songs out there right now for “Day Drinking” to make much of a splash. Still, it has the potential to peak in the 40s with the right airplay.

“Shower” by Becky G (#88)

  • Sounding like an American Cher Lloyd, 17-year-old Becky G makes her second Hot 100 appearance and first as a lead artist this week. She wrote and featured on Cher Lloyd’s own “Oath” last year. I’m impressed that “Shower” doesn’t fall victim to the over-produced trappings of most teen pop songs these days, and I think there could be some positive response to this single. I can see this song easily reaching the Top 40, and potential the Top 30 if Selena Gomez, Miley Cyrus, and Lorde continue to take the summer off.

“Studio” by ScHoolboy Q f/BJ The Chicago Kid (#89)

  • A few weeks after “Man of the Year” ebbed off the charts, ScHoolboy Q is back on the Hot 100 with his second single off of Oxymoron. “Studio” has a pretty generic Lil Wayne-esque beat and a very unmemorable hook from a relatively unknown feature. I don’t see “Studio” reaching any higher than #70.

“Wasted” by Tiesto f/Matthew Koma (#95)

  • As “Red Lights” drops 20 spots this week and seems destined to become a bit of a dissapointing maiden Hot 100 voyage, the Dutch DJ fires right back with another attempt. “Wasted” features American vocalist Koma (a favorite for EDM artists like Zedd, Alesso, et al.), and is a lot more bouncy than “Red Lights.” Unfortunately, this also makes it much more generic-sounding, so I can’t predict “Wasted” to peak any higher than #75.

“Song About A Girl” by Eric Paslay (#98)

  • Over the winter, Paslay hit the Hot 100 with “Friday Night,” a song he initially wrote for Lady Antebellum. With “Song About A Girl,” he finally reaches the charts with a song he wrote for himself. Using a pop-friendly rhythm section to grant the track a shiny outlaw-rock veneer, “Song About A Girl” makes up for Eric Church’s current absence on the chart with a song unlike the others currently on the Hot 100. As such, I can see the track reaching similar levels of success as “Friday Night”: that is to say, a peak in the 40s.

“I’m Ready” by AJR (#99)

  • Featuring a consistent repetitive sample of Spongebob’s catchphrase, the New York pop band of brothers makes their debut this week with “I’m Ready.” This song has been floating around the internet since last summer, so I’m unsure why it’s hitting the charts now. When Spongebob isn’t interrupting the groove, it’s not a terrible pop song, but I still can’t see the song peaking any higher than the 60s at the absolute best.

Once again, it’s another bizarre and mixed week of debuts this week. None of the debuts are by bona fide stars, and Charli XCX and Sam Smith’s offerings have serious one-and-done potential. I usually don’t tag a country song as the biggest potential hit due to the genre’s Hot 100 glass ceiling, but I think “Song About A Girl” has the most airplay potential, followed closely by “Day Drinking.” If you’re looking for a sleeper hit, “Shower” has potential if the traditional teen idols continue their album-less hiatus in the coming months.

#1 SONGS ON THE GENRE CHARTS

  • POP: Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX (#1 on Hot 100)
  • COUNTRY: This Is How We Roll by Florida Georgia Line f/Luke Bryan (#15 on Hot 100)
  • ROCK: Ain’t It Fun by Paramore (#13 on Hot 100)
  • ALTERNATIVE: Fever by The Black Keys (not currently on Hot 100)
  • R&B/HIP-HOP: Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX (#1 on Hot 100)
  • RAP: Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX (#1 on Hot 100)
  • DANCE/ELECTRONIC: Turn Down For What by DJ Snake & Lil Jon (#4 on Hot 100)
  • LATIN: Bailando by Enrique Iglesias (#53 on Hot 100)

FINAL THOUGHTS

  1. Continuing their trend of releasing remixes with pop artists, Florida Georgia Line are at it again, as the official Jason Derulo remix for “This Is How We Roll” impacted its chart standing this week. Accounting for 55% of the song’s sales, the remix pumped “This Is How We Roll” up to a new peak of #15 this week. No comment on the quality of the remix.
  2. With “Fancy” and “Problem” sitting at 1-2 for a third consecutive week, Iggy Azalea is on her way towards another Beatles milestone. With a combination of “I Want To Hold Your Hand”, “She Loves You”, “Can’t Buy Me Love”, and “Twist and Shout”, the Fab Four started their Hot 100 careers with 10 consecutive weeks holding down the top two positions. It’s unlikely that Azalea will replicate the feat, but it’s still impressive that she’s almost halfway there with her first two charting singles.

 

That’s all for this week! I’ll be back on Thursday with a look at the next edition of the Hot 100. More predictions and analysis coming at you in a week!

Until then,

Ryan

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