Billboard Hot 100 Analysis: 6/19/2014

Welcome back for another analysis of the Billboard Hot 100! Here’s all you need to know about the chart released today.

THIS WEEK’S TOP TEN

  1. Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX
  2. Problem by Ariana Grande f/Iggy Azalea
  3. Rude by MAGIC!
  4. All Of Me by John Legend
  5. Wiggle by Jason Derulo f/Snoop Dogg
  6. Turn Down For What by DJ Snake & Lil Jon
  7. Am I Wrong by Nico & Vinz
  8. Happy by Pharrell Williams
  9. Summer by Calvin Harris
  10. Stay With Me by Sam Smith

There’s really not too much to speak of in the Top 10 this week, so I’ll keep my commentary brief. The same ten songs reprise their roles today, with some minor shuffling throughout. The only song reaching a new peak this week is “Rude” by MAGIC!, as the reggae/pop hit leapfrogs a slew of Top 5 stalwarts to reach #3. Although “Fancy” and “Problem” maintain a huge lead over the rest of the field, look for “Rude” to make a run at #1 in the next few weeks.

 

BIGGEST MOVERS THIS WEEK

42+ Spots: We Are One (Ole Ola) by Pitbull f/Jennifer Lopez & Claudia Leitte (re-enters at #59)

33 Spots: Boom Clap by Charli XCX (62-29)

30 Spots: Dare (La La La) by Shakira (83-53)

24 Spots: Or Nah by Ty Dolla $ign f/Wiz Khalifa & DJ Mustard (72-48)

19 Spots: Pills N Potions by Nicki Minaj (43-24)

19 Spots: Wasted by Tiesto f/Matthew Koma (95-76)

 

  1. Following its live performance at Brazil’s opening match last Thursday, the 2014 World Cup’s official song makes a lofty re-entry this week, bringing a bright spot to its otherwise disappointing run thus far.
  2. The soundtrack to The Fault In Our Stars was the album with the best sales gains this past week, so Charli XCX’s lead single experiences a similar boost. For XCX, it becomes her first Top 40 single as the lead artist.
  3. It’s World Cup time again for Shakira, and this single from her self-titled album has been featured in a slew of Cup-inspired commercials.
  4. I’m not sure what causes the bump this week, but after three months of floundering in the 70s and 80s, Ty Dolla $ign’s follow-up to “Paranoid” bounds into the Top 50.
  5. Through millions of views of its weird music video and attention on R&B radio, Minaj’s latest single finds the Top 25 after a three-week stint stuck in the 40s.
  6. After its appearance in 22 Jump Street, Tiesto’s latest mainstream hit sees a positive second week movement.

HOT 100 DEBUTS THIS WEEK

“Hangover” by PSY f/Snoop Dogg (#26)

  • Just when you thought PSY wasn’t going to sneak his way back into the attention of the pop world, he found a way to do it again. This time recruiting the help of Snoop Dogg, “Hangover” contains all the grating synths, odd dancing, and choppy English we’ve come to expect from the Korean superstar. Once again driven entirely by YouTube views, look for “Hangover” to experience a similar fate to last year’s “Gentleman.” It might rise up the chart for a week or two as word of mouth spreads, but its fall off the charts will certainly be quick and decisive.

“Don’t” by Ed Sheeran (#46)

  • With X set to drop this Tuesday, one last preview single finds its way onto the Hot 100 this week for Ed Sheeran. None of these promotional tracks have affected the radio as much  as “Sing” (which  spends a 10th consecutive week in the Top 20), but these songs continue to showcase his songwriting, vocals, and acoustic vibe. It very well could drop off the Hot 100 by next week, but Sheeran will absolutely be satisfied with three charting songs before the album even comes out.

“Small Town Throwdown” by Brantley Gilbert f/Justin Moore & Thomas Rhett (#95)

  • Unlike the slew of songs which one-and-doned a month or so ago, “Small Town Throwdown” represents an actual follow-up single to “Bottoms Up” for Gilbert. Featuring Moore and Rhett, who both hit the Top 50 this spring with songs of their own, already sits at #21 on the Country Airplay charts, so its upward mobility is massive. Look for it to potentially reach the Top 40 this summer as radio airplay really kicks in.

“Rather Be” by Clean Bandit f/Jess Glynne (#97)

  • Following the lead of “La La La” and “Love Me Again”, we have another dance-friendly U.K. #1 single making its US debut months later. Featuring a great combination of strings and synth, this track has gone to #1 in virtually every country across Europe, and is Britain’s best-selling single of 2014 thus far. That title in 2013 belonged to “Pompeii,” and you see where that took the song here. I predict big things for this song, as it sounds like a perfect summer radio hit. Look for “Rather Be” to peak at least in the teens, like “La La La.” However, I can easily see it reaching the Top 10 in late July or August.

“Hope You Get Lonely Tonight” by Cole Swindell (#99)

  • I was as surprised as anyone when “Chillin’ It”, Swindell’s debut single, reached the Top 30 this winter and was the first bona fide country hit of 2014. That being said, following that success up will be a dubious task at best, especially in the rabid mosh of country hits which flood the radio in summertime. I can’t see “Hope You Get Lonely Tonight” peaking much higher than #50, if it even gets that high.

“Jungle” by Jamie N Commons & X Ambassadors (#100)

  • Combining the raspy Tom Waits-esque voice of Jamie N Commons with the alternative band X Ambassadors, the two acts blend their talents to make a song which sounds like a slightly more chaotic version of “Sail”. It was featured in a World Cup commercial for Beats headphones. Those commercials will keep playing for the next few weeks, so look for “Jungle” to make some leaps forward. Its longevity is definitely in question though, so for now I can only see it peaking somewhere in the 60s by the time the Cup ends.

 

The high debuts this week don’t have much upward mobility (and quite frankly, I don’t want to see “Hangover” on the chart for any more weeks). Thus, my prediction for biggest hit is going to have to come out of a debut in the 90s. As I said a little earlier, I’m a big fan of “Rather Be,” and I think the sky is the limit for its Hot 100 prospects. So British group Clean Bandit gets the edge this week, although “Small Town Throwdown” has the potential to reign on country radio as well.

 

P.S. Please don’t listen to “Hangover” anymore, it’s had enough attention already.

#1 SONGS ON THE GENRE CHARTS

  • POP: Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX (#1 on Hot 100)
  • COUNTRY: This Is How We Roll by Florida Georgia Line f/Luke Bryan (#17 on Hot 100)
  • ROCK: Ain’t It Fun by Paramore (#12 on Hot 100)
  • ALTERNATIVE: Fever by The Black Keys (not currently on Hot 100)
  • R&B/HIP-HOP: Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX (#1 on Hot 100)
  • RAP: Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX (#1 on Hot 100)
  • DANCE/ELECTRONIC: Turn Down For What by DJ Snake & Lil Jon (#6 on Hot 100)
  • LATIN: Bailando by Enrique Iglesias (#40 on Hot 100)

FINAL THOUGHTS

  1. With “Counting Stars” logging its 52nd week on the chart today, OneRepublic joins Imagine Dragons and Lifehouse as the only acts to have two songs log at least a year on the Hot 100. “Apologize” spent many months on the Hot 100 between 2007 and 2008, similarly peaking at #2. Interestingly enough, “Counting Stars” has spent exactly 26 weeks on the chart in 2013 and 26 weeks in 2014. Imagine Dragons’ “Demons” (2013-2014), The Black Eyed Peas’ “I Gotta Feeling” (2009-2010), and Jason Mraz’s “I’m Yours” (2008-2009) are the only other songs to appear for at least 26 weeks in two calendar years.
  2. It’s now the end of June, and yet we still have 11 songs which have spent the entirety of 2014 on the Hot 100. My condolences to “Bottoms Up”, “Show Me” and “Story Of My Life,” which fell off this week and just missed inclusion in the exclusive list.
  3. Since Week 26 has elapsed, we are officially halfway done with Hot 100 charts for 2014. Here’s a look at the top 25 songs of the year thus far according to my rankings and calculations. As before, I’ll omit the actual points for now, to keep you guys in suspense for the final rankings in December.

 

  1. Dark Horse – Katy Perry
  2. Counting Stars – OneRepublic
  3. Pompeii – Bastille
  4. Timber – Pitbull f/Ke$ha
  5. Talk Dirty – Jason Derulo f/2 Chainz
  6. Team – Lorde
  7. All Of Me – John Legend
  8. Happy – Pharrell Williams
  9. Let It Go – Idina Menzel
  10. Turn Down For What – DJ Snake & Lil Jon
  11. Best Day Of My Life – American Authors
  12. Wake Me Up! – Avicii
  13. Story Of My Life – One Direction
  14. Demons – Imagine Dragons
  15. Let Her Go – Passenger
  16. Show Me – Kid Ink f/Chris Brown
  17. The Monster – Eminem f/Rihanna
  18. Say Something – A Great Big World
  19. Drunk In Love – Beyoncé f/Jay-Z
  20. Burn – Ellie Goulding
  21. Royals – Lorde
  22. The Man – Aloe Blacc
  23. Loyal – Chris Brown f/Lil Wayne et al.
  24. Bottoms Up – Brantley Gilbert
  25. Hey Brother – Avicii

 

That’s all for this week! I’ll be back on Thursday with a look at the next edition of the Hot 100. More predictions and analysis coming at you in a week!

Until then,

Ryan

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