Billboard Hot 100 Analysis: 6/26/2014

Welcome back for another analysis of the Billboard Hot 100! Here’s all you need to know about the chart released today.

THIS WEEK’S TOP TEN

  1. Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX
  2. Problem by Ariana Grande f/Iggy Azalea
  3. Rude by MAGIC!
  4. Am I Wrong by Nico & Vinz
  5. Stay With Me by Sam Smith
  6. Wiggle by Jason Derulo f/Snoop Dogg
  7. All Of Me by John Legend
  8. Summer by Calvin Harris
  9. Turn Down For What by DJ Snake & Lil Jon
  10. Happy by Pharrell Williams

Another reasonably stagnant week in the Top 10 this week, with no new entrants to speak of. The only big movements come at nos. 4 and 5. At #4, Nico & Vinz make “Am I Wrong” the first Top 5 single by a Norwegian act since 1985’s “Take On Me.” Unlike A-ha and Ylvis (also from Norway), “Am I Wrong” has no viral video to spur sales and chart positions, so the Norway duo are conquering the Hot 100 purely organically.

At #5, first-week sales of In The Lonely Hour prompt a five-spot leap for Sam Smith, who is quickly cementing his odds of being 2014’s Hot 100 Rookie of the Year. Meanwhile for Smith on the charts, “Latch” (on which he is featured) rises to #12, giving him good odds of a second Top 10 single in the coming weeks.

 

BIGGEST MOVERS THIS WEEK

22 Spots: Wasted by Tiesto f/Matthew Koma (76-54)

20 Spots: Shower by Becky G (75-55)

15 Spots: A Sky Full Of Stars by Coldplay (71-56)

11 Spots: Rather Be by Clean Bandit f/Jess Glynne (97-86)

 

  1. Through continued 22 Jump Street hype, as well as pop radio friendliness, Tiesto’s latest single passes his previous career highest peak (“Red Lights” hit #56) in just three weeks.
  2. A surprise winner of the Digital Sales Gainer award this week, the teen is fully taking advantage of a thus-far Cyrus-less and Gomez-less summer.
  3. With a music video finally coming out last week, the Coldplay single sees a modest jump in the midst of a swift chart decline.
  4. My hit prediction from last week gets off to a good start, as the synth/strings pop smash sees across-the-board gains in Week 2.

HOT 100 DEBUTS THIS WEEK

“Maps” by Maroon 5 (#14)

  • Securing their second-highest career debut (behind “Payphone”‘s #3 debut in 2012), Maroon 5 preview their upcoming album V with this week’s Top Debut. “Maps” is a little less synth-dependent than most of the Overexposed cuts, so that’s a good sign for fans of Maroon 5’s older sound. A second-week decline is inevitable for a debut this high, but this song is sure to get radio airplay as the summer goes on. I can easily see “Maps” reaching the Top 10, and it will at least spend a few weeks in the teens over the course of its run. Looks like Maroon 5 is off to another hit single-filled album.

“Kiss Me Kiss Me” by 5 Seconds Of Summer (#28)

  • You know the drill already with these 5SOS debuts. Each week it seems, another preview track from their forthcoming debut album hits the iTunes market and goes straight to the top of that chart. Nothing special here, although it does represent their highest debut yet. Expect it to hang around on the Hot 100 for another week or to, but on a steep decline. Nothing else to say here, these songs are pretty formulaic.

“Afire Love” by Ed Sheeran (#37)

  • We’ve got the same deal here with Ed Sheeran songs from X. The album officially came out on Tuesday, so its sales impact on “Sing” and the other songs of his won’t show up until next week’s chart. That being said, “Afire Love” is his highest debut since “Sing” and should receive some help from X‘s sales next week. However, don’t expect it to register any more than 3 or 4 weeks on the chart, since it hasn’t been officially released as a single yet.

“No Mediocre” by T.I. f/Iggy Azalea (#58)

  • Fun fact: Years before she broke out this summer, Iggy Azalea was initally signed to T.I.’s Hustle Gang label in 2011. Now that she’s a can’t miss act and since T.I.’s star has faded considerably, it’s understandable why he decided to release a new collaboration. Conceptually and sonically, it sounds just like last year’s “Ball,” but replacing Lil Wayne with an Iggy verse and recruiting DJ Mustard for the production. I don’t know what to think of this, other than it won’t be played on pop radio since the chorus is profanity-laced. It could reach the Top 40 on Iggy and Mustard alone, but I have a hunch that hip-hop radio won’t be able to elevate “No Mediocre” above its entry position.

“American Kids” by Kenny Chesney (#82)

  • Making his first chart appearance of 2014, perennial country favorite Chesney arrives just in time for summer. Succumbing to the “country rap” style of verse that has become the norm in recent years, Chesney at least has the decency to avoid the pop production Keith Urban has been using or the auto-tune that Tim McGraw has recently utilized. The result is a nostalgic sound that name-checks a lot of 80s rock songs and reminds us what country music should be sounding like these days. This will certainly get radio airplay, and I can see it peaking in the upper 30s.

“First Love” by Jennifer Lopez (#87)

  • Aided by first week sales of A.K.A., J-Lo’s latest single joins “I Luh Ya Papi” and her World Cup collaboration with Pitbull in the ranks of her 2014 chart appearances. Whereas “I Luh Ya Papi” was more of a twerk novelty song, “First Love” sounds more like Beyoncé circa 2003, with a throwback sound to when Lopez frequented the top of the charts. I have a hunch that the album sales are the only thing sparking this debut, but I could be wrong, in which case I could see a peak in the 60s or 70s. My bet is on a one-and-done scenario however.

 

No contest here with my pick for the biggest hit amongst this bunch. Maroon 5 has an impressive streak going of five consecutive Top 10 singles, and “Maps” is off to a great head start as it aims to hit #10. Anything Maroon 5 puts out will become a hit on adult contemporary radio and family-friendly pop stations, so airplay will not be an issue here. Anything less than the Top 10 for “Maps” would be considered a surprise and a disappointment. Don’t be alarmed by the impending second-week drop, it happens with nearly every song that debuts this high. The rebound will occur in the near future, and that’s more than the other lofty debuts can claim this week.

 

#1 SONGS ON THE GENRE CHARTS

  • POP: Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX (#1 on Hot 100)
  • COUNTRY: Play It Again by Luke Bryan (#25 on Hot 100)
  • ROCK: Ain’t It Fun by Paramore (#15 on Hot 100)
  • ALTERNATIVE: Fever by The Black Keys (not currently on Hot 100)
  • R&B/HIP-HOP: Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX (#1 on Hot 100)
  • RAP: Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX (#1 on Hot 100)
  • DANCE/ELECTRONIC: Summer by Calvin Harris (#8 on Hot 100)
  • LATIN: Bailando by Enrique Iglesias (#35 on Hot 100)

FINAL THOUGHTS

  1. As “Bailando” moves 40-35 this week, the Spanish-language track continues to impress me. In addition to being one of my favorite beats of the year, it also is inching closer to chart history. It’s already the highest-charting Spanish song on the Hot 100 in 10 years, when Shakira and Alejandro Sanz took “La Tortura” to #27 in 2005. Prior to that, Los Lobos took their cover of “La Bamba” to #1 in 1987. Matching that accomplishment is a very long shot, but kudos to Iglesias for finding success via this new avenue.
  2. In perhaps its last week on the Hot 100, Avicii’s “Wake Me Up” logs its 52nd week on the chart, making it the first EDM song ever to spend a full year on the Hot 100.

 

That’s all for this week! I’ll be back on Thursday with a look at the next edition of the Hot 100. More predictions and analysis coming at you in a week!

Until then,

Ryan

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