Billboard Hot 100 Analysis: 7/3/2014

Welcome back for another analysis of the Billboard Hot 100! Here’s all you need to know about the chart released today.

THIS WEEK’S TOP TEN

  1. Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX
  2. Rude by MAGIC!
  3. Problem by Ariana Grande f/Iggy Azalea
  4. Am I Wrong by Nico & Vinz
  5. Stay With Me by Sam Smith
  6. Wiggle by Jason Derulo f/Snoop Dogg
  7. All Of Me by John Legend
  8. Summer by Calvin Harris
  9. Turn Down For What by DJ Snake & Lil Jon
  10. Happy by Pharrell Williams

For the third consecutive week, no new songs grace the Top 10 of the Hot 100. In fact, only one song registers positive movement, as songs 4-10 remain in place from last week. That one lucky song is “Rude,” which is the king of radio airplay right now. By rising 3-2 this week, it dethrones Iggy Azalea from her 5-week hold on the top two spots, leaving her short of the Beatles’ formidable all-time record. As “Rude” continues to lead the Radio Songs chart, it has a chance to become the #1 single as soon as the next few weeks.

 

BIGGEST MOVERS THIS WEEK

65 Spots: Somethin’ Bad by Miranda Lambert & Carrie Underwood 84-19)

46 Spots: Really Don’t Care by Demi Lovato f/Cher Lloyd (83-37)

39 Spots: American Kids by Kenny Chesney (82-43)

26 Spots: Rather Be by Clean Bandit f/Jess Glynne (86-60)

18 Spots: Meanwhile Back At Mama’s by Tim McGraw f/Faith Hill (81-63)

 

  1. The roller coaster ride continues for this all-star duet. After risking dropping off the chart entirely, it claims the Streaming Gainer award this week and becomes Lambert’s highest charting song to date.
  2. Here we have an interesting story. “Really Don’t Care” spent one week on the Hot 100 last year when the Demi album released, but fell off right away. Now that it has re-entered the charts, it is having a resurgence in popularity. It is getting a lot of radio airplay, and should continue to climb in the coming weeks.
  3. Winning the Digital Sales Gainer award this week, Kenny Chesney’s latest single becomes his highest charting effort since 2012’s “Come Over” in just its second week on the chart.
  4. Two weeks in a row on this list for Clean Bandit, who follow up last week’s impressive gain with an even more noteworthy jump this week. The British group could claim its first Top 40 hit as recently as next week.
  5. It’s a good week for country duets, as three of them hit the Biggest Movers list this week. The husband-wife combo of McGraw and Hill are starting to impact country radio, which is always a formula for Hot 100 success.

HOT 100 DEBUTS THIS WEEK

“Life Of The Party” by Shawn Mendes (#24)

  • Just 15 years old, Mendes is a Vine superstar, with nearly 3 million followers on the still young social medium. Most Vine-famous songs are “twerk song,” but this is more of a pop-infused ballad. I’ll admit that I was slightly impressed that the song subverted my expectations, but I can’t say the same for the song’s future. A debut this high is always a red flag for me, as it oftens shows unrepeatable first week sales. Look for a steep drop next week, or perhaps even a one-and-done situation.

“Get Her Back” by Robin Thicke (#82)

  • Taking stalker ex to a whole new level, Robin Thicke’s first chart appearance since “Blurred Lines” left is an overt plea to his estranged wife Paula Patton. The first single off the recently released Paula (subtle, I know) has a decent flow to it, but is far too conspicuous to have any real gravitas. It may have been a personal catharsis, but I don’t see Thicke having another hit on his hands here. The hype of the album’s backstory will almost surely outpace its actual success. Look for “Get Her Back” to spend no more than another week or two on the chart.

“Don’t Tell ‘Em” by Jeremih f/YG (#89)

  • 7. That number doesn’t represent the number of years since Jeremih had a song on the Hot 100 (though you’re clever for thinking that), but rather the number of current songs on the Hot 100 that claim DJ Mustard as producer. Make that 8 as the singer of “Birthday Sex” and “Down On Me” fame makes his long-anticipated chart return. The song is as generic as they come, but I’ve learned that DJ Mustard can craft a hit out of thin air. So, this could reach the Top 40 with enough airplay, but I don’t see it rising any higher than #65.

“Riptide” by Vance Joy (#92)

  • Now that Passenger has shown the Hot 100’s love of folk-pop songs, a bevy of imitators are sure to follow. First to arrive to the party is Australian Vance Joy, who took “Riptide” to the Top 10 last year in Australia, Canada, and Germany. Driven by a catchy acoustic guitar riff and a heavily accented voice, this song undeniably has hit potential. It might not rule the radio as much as “Let Her Go,” but it’s in the same league and a run toward the Top 20 is definitely not out of the question.

“Leave The Night On” by Sam Hunt (#98)

  • Not too much to say about this one. There have been a lot of unfamiliar names sneaking country radio songs onto the Hot 100 this year (like Craig Campbell and Chase Rice), and Sam Hunt adds his name to that growing list. It’s a pretty generic “enjoy partying with your girl” song, so it will play just fine on country radio. As for the Hot 100 however, “Leave The Night On” probably won’t have the legs to break the Top 80.

“She Twerkin” by Ca$h Out (#100)

  • A one-hit wonder if ever there was one, Ca$h Out name-checked himself in 2012’s “Cashin’ Out,” which peaked in the Top 40 and spent 20 weeks on the chart. I wasn’t expecting him to return to the Hot 100 at all, but here he is. Twerking may have been a popular trend a few months ago, but I think it’s safe to say that its welcome has more than been worn out. As such, I don’t foresee a follow-up hit for Ca$h Out. In fact, I think we have a prime candidate for a one-and-done at #100 situation.

 

With the exception of the Vine star’s high (and unsustainable) debut, all of these songs this week begin at humble ranks. For its crossover potential and its undeniable catchiness, I’m going to give my nod this week to “Riptide.” The pop-folk movement might anger a lot of purists, but I can easily see it receiving good amounts of pop and Adult Contemporary airplay. We might have a good sleeper hit on our hands, and it certainly beats out the generic rap songs competing against it this week.

 

#1 SONGS ON THE GENRE CHARTS

  • POP: Problem by Ariana Grande f/Iggy Azalea (#3 on Hot 100)
  • COUNTRY: Somethin’ Bad by Miranda Lambert & Carrie Underwood (#19 on Hot 100)
  • ROCK: Ain’t It Fun by Paramore (#14 on Hot 100)
  • ALTERNATIVE: Fever by The Black Keys (not currently on Hot 100)
  • R&B/HIP-HOP: Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX (#1 on Hot 100)
  • RAP: Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX (#1 on Hot 100)
  • DANCE/ELECTRONIC: Summer by Calvin Harris (#8 on Hot 100)
  • LATIN: Bailando by Enrique Iglesias (#33 on Hot 100)

FINAL THOUGHTS

  1. Both “Demons” and “On Top Of The World” fall off the Hot 100 this week, bringing a formidable era to an end. In fact, the last time that Imagine Dragons did NOT have a song appearing on the Hot 100 was June 16, 2012, the week before the band made their first ever appearance with “It’s Time.” For a band to remain a presence on the Hot 100 for two full year with their first three singles (“It’s Time” logged 47 weeks, “Radioactive 87 weeks, and “Demons” 61 weeks”) is a truly remarkable feat, and one that we will unlikely see repeated for a long time.

 

That’s all for this week! I’ll be back on Thursday with a look at the next edition of the Hot 100. More predictions and analysis coming at you in a week!

Until then,

Ryan

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