Billboard Hot 100 Analysis: 7/10/2014

Welcome back for another analysis of the Billboard Hot 100! Here’s all you need to know about the chart released today.

THIS WEEK’S TOP TEN

  1. Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX
  2. Rude by MAGIC!
  3. Problem by Ariana Grande f/Iggy Azalea
  4. Am I Wrong by Nico & Vinz
  5. Stay With Me by Sam Smith
  6. Wiggle by Jason Derulo f/Snoop Dogg
  7. Summer by Calvin Harris
  8. All Of Me by John Legend
  9. Maps by Maroon 5
  10. Turn Down For What by DJ Snake & Lil Jon

Songs 1-6 remain stationary this week on the Hot 100, as “Fancy” logs its seventh consecutive week atop the charts. “Fancy'”s run continues a trend of long-lasting chart-toppers that we’ve seen this year, as through 29 official chart weeks, only six songs have claimed the #1 ranking.

At #7, Calvin Harris’ apropos dance hit of the summer reaches a new peak at #7. For Harris, it continues to redefine his highest chart ranking as lead artist, and only trails Rihanna’s #1 smash “We Found Love” (on which he was featured) as the best showing of his career.

Maroon 5 scores the lone new entry into the Top 10 this week, as “Maps” reaches #9 in just its third week on the charts. There was no sales drop-off like I had anticipated, and “Maps” has steadily risen 14-13-9 in its young chart run. For the Adam Levine-led group, it marks their sixth consecutive single to reach the Top 10 (a streak begun by 2011’s “Moves Like Jagger”), and shows that public anticipation for their album V is beginning strongly.

 

BIGGEST MOVERS THIS WEEK

15 Spots: American Kids by Kenny Chesney (43-28)

14 Spots: Shower by Becky G (45-31)

12 Spots: No Mediocre by T.I. f/Iggy Azalea (78-66)

12 Spots: Leave The Night On by Sam Hunt (98-86)

11 Spots: Come Get It Bae by Pharrell Williams (69-58)

 

  1. For the second week in a row, “American Kids” sees a sizable jump as it bounds to #2 on the Country Songs chart in just its third week. It likewise becomes Chesney’s highest-ranking Hot 100 hit since “Come Over” hit #23 in 2012.
  2. I had a hunch about “Shower” from the moment I first heard it, and it looks like that hunch has come to fruition, granting the 16-year-old her first ever Top 40 single.
  3. Following a big drop-off in its second week, T.I.’s novelty hit makes up lost ground this week, inching closer to its previous high point at #58.
  4. Not a bad second week jump for an unknown country artist. Hunt is spending his summer touring with Little Big Town, so that exposure could help the fate of “Turn The Night On” in the coming weeks.
  5. After floundering around in the 70s and 80s for a month or so, “Come Get It Bae” has started to grab some momentum, securing the Digital Sales Gainer award this week in reaching a new peak position.

HOT 100 DEBUTS THIS WEEK

“Break Free” by Ariana Grande f/Zedd (#15)

  • As “Problem” continues to hold court in the Top 3, Grande secures her second Top Debut in as many months with “Break Free.” Teaming up with German EDM star Zedd, the track is much less pop-friendly than “Problem”, but still holds certain charms due to Grande’s easygoing vocals. The production is a bit jarring for my taste, and I don’t think that “Break Free” has as bright a future as “Problem.” It might hang around in the teens for a few weeks and might reach #9 or #10, but I don’t anticipate pop radio to give this enough airplay to earn chart longevity.

“Amnesia” by 5 Seconds Of Summer (#16)

  • 5 Seconds of Summer’s fifth debut of the summer just so happens to be their highest yet, as “Amnesia” passes the highpoint that “She Looks So Perfect” reached. The Aussies’ album won’t come out for another month yet, so expect the same thing from “Amnesia” as the other debuts thus far: a swift and steady decline off the chart in one or two weeks.

“Foreign” by Trey Songz (#84)

  • Following the surprise success of “Na Na” and his #1 debut with his new album Trigga, it’s good to be Trey Songz right now. His newest single is a little more raunchy and dark than “Na Na” (and doesn’t feature DJ Mustard), so its prospects are significantly lower in my mind. I expect this to be a one-and-done debut, but it could reach the 70s in a best-case scenario.

“New Flame” by Chris Brown f/Usher & Rick Ross (#92)

  • Debuting at the BET awards last week, Chris Brown looks to follow up the Top 10 single “Loyal” with another all-star track. Going for more of a traditional R&B vibe on “New Flame,” Brown recruits the help of Usher and a verse from Rick Ross to counterpoint the more rap/pop flair of “Loyal.” I’ve learned not to underestimate Chris Brown singles, and I think this could easily reach the Top 40 as R&B airplay is almost certain to be a formidable force.

“Calm Down” by Busta Rhymes f/Eminem (#94)

  • Starting with the intro of House of Pain’s “Jump Around,” Busta Rhymes loudly announces that he’s back. “Calm Down” is Busta Rhymes’ first appearance since his memorable verse on Chris Brown’s “Look At Me Now,” and his first Hot 100 single as lead artist since 2008’s “Arab Money.” He certainly goes all out on this track, and Eminem lends a hand too, but I think Busta’s window of popularity has passed. He works better as a featured performer, but this song drags on for nearly six minutes with rapping too fast to be coherent. This probably won’t get any higher than #80, and most likely will turn into a one-and-done.

“Black Widow” by Iggy Azalea f/Rita Ora (#97)

  • Leading all artists right now, Iggy Azalea now has five songs on the Hot 100 with the modest debut of “Black Widow.” There’s something quite catchy and “Dark Horse”-esque about the beat, and Rita Ora does some good vocal work in the bridge and chorus. This song will receive good airplay in the clubs, and I see it having a similar chart run to “Work,” that is to say a peak somewhere in the 40s or 50s.

“Ten Feet Tall” by Afrojack f/Wrabel (#100)

  • This song was released back at the beginning of the year and was featured in a slew of Bud Light ads, so I’m surprised that it’s taken this long for “Ten Feet Tall” to chart. It becomes AfroJack’s first chart appearance as lead artist since “Take Over Control” in 2011, and the first-ever appearance for Wrabel, who sings and plays piano on the track. It’s a fairly run-of-the-mill EDM song, and there are plenty of those on the charts right now. If it last more than just this one week, don’t expect it to reach any higher than the 60s or 70s.

 

In all honesty, every one of these debuts this week have the potential to become one-and-done songs, since “Break Free” and “Amnesia” have the stigma of unmatchable first-week digital sales and the rest are likewise influenced by recent digital releases. The two songs with the best potential to stick around are “Break Free” and “Black Widow,” due to Azalea and Grande’s current dominance of the Hot 100’s upper echelon. My gut says that “Break Free” will stick around the longest, but “Black Widow” has some sleeper potential without a doubt.

 

#1 SONGS ON THE GENRE CHARTS

  • POP: Problem by Ariana Grande f/Iggy Azalea (#3 on Hot 100)
  • COUNTRY: Beachin’ by Jake Owen (#27 on Hot 100)
  • ROCK: Ain’t It Fun by Paramore (#18 on Hot 100)
  • ALTERNATIVE: Fever by The Black Keys (not currently on Hot 100)
  • R&B/HIP-HOP: Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX (#1 on Hot 100)
  • RAP: Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX (#1 on Hot 100)
  • DANCE/ELECTRONIC: Summer by Calvin Harris (#7 on Hot 100)
  • LATIN: Bailando by Enrique Iglesias (#25 on Hot 100)

FINAL THOUGHTS

  1. Rising 33-25, Enrique Iglesias’ hit “Bailando” has now become the highest-charting Spanish language track in over a quarter century. The previous high point for a Spanish song was the #27 peak of Shakira’s “La Tortura” featuring Alejandro Sanz back in 2005. Los Lobos hit #1 in 1987 with their cover of Ritchie Valens’ “La Bamba,” so Enrique Iglesias will need to log his 3rd Hot 100 #1 in order to match the feat of “La Bamba.” Nonetheless, “Bailando'”s success is a very noteworthy achievement, and continues to represent the Hot 100’s ever-increasing globalization.

 

That’s all for this week! I’ll be back on Thursday with a look at the next edition of the Hot 100. More predictions and analysis coming at you in a week!

Until then,

Ryan

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s