Billboard Hot 100 Analysis: 7/17/2014

Welcome back for another analysis of the Billboard Hot 100! Here’s all you need to know about the chart released today.

THIS WEEK’S TOP TEN

  1. Rude by MAGIC!
  2. Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX
  3. Problem by Ariana Grande f/Iggy Azalea
  4. Am I Wrong by Nico & Vinz
  5. Stay With Me by Sam Smith
  6. Wiggle by Jason Derulo f/Snoop Dogg
  7. All Of Me by John Legend
  8. Maps by Maroon 5
  9. Summer by Calvin Harris
  10. Latch by Disclosure f/Sam Smith

After a two-month stay atop the Hot 100, “Fancy” finally relinquishes its crown to another one-word song. It had already been the Radio Songs leader for a few weeks (and believe me, I can vouch for that statistic’s truth), “Rude” can now add the most impressive jewel to its chart run crown. MAGIC! becomes the first Canadian act to score a Number One single since Avril Lavigne’s “Girlfriend” in 2007 (Bieber still hasn’t gotten his first), and the first Canadian group to reach the top since Nickelback similarly hit #1 with their debut single “How You Remind Me.” Nickelback was unarguably the most consistent pop-rock act of the 2000s, so can MAGIC! turn the same trick for the 2010s? I personally doubt it, but they’ve certainly gotten of to the right start.

The only other notable movement in the Top 10 this week is the arrival of “Latch” at #10. Disclosure, comprised of two French brothers (both of them 90s kids), take their first charting effort into the Top 10, a feat that their musical forefathers Daft Punk took 15 years to accomplish. The duo first made headlines with their critically-acclaimed 2013 album Settle (which included “Latch”), punctuated by Rolling Stone Magazine calling their “When A Fire Starts To Burn” one of the ten best songs of 2013. Since debuting at #100 back in late March, “Latch” has been a sleeper hit of the highest order, inching its way up the charts and earning rare airplay for a club-oriented track.

 

BIGGEST MOVERS THIS WEEK

32 Spots: Black Widow by Iggy Azalea f/Rita Ora (97-65)

19 Spots: Rather Be by Clean Bandit f/Jess Glynne (51-32)

13 Spots: Leave The Night On by Sam Hunt (86-73)

10 Spots: Shower by Becky G (31-21)

 

  1. While “Work” has somewhat fizzled in recent weeks, it looks like Iggy Azalea’s quest to find a viable followup to “Fancy” has resumed in earnest. Thanks to a very impressive contribution from Rita Ora, this song has a lot of punch and is apparently reminding listeners of “Dark Horse.” This second-week climb is a good omen for the weeks to follow.
  2. I think my hunch about “Rather Be” was right, as it continues to shoot up the chart. Rapidly gaining airplay, this song could be within the Top 20 as soon as the beginning of August if this keeps up.
  3. Sam Hunt evidently went to the Jake Owen school of country music production, and his debut single has made the Biggest Movers list in each of its first two weeks of movement.
  4. The release of a music video has given “Shower” the boost it needed to overcome the inevitable lake of viral sales behavior. As it starts to catch on on the radio now, look for it to hit the Top 20 next week.

HOT 100 DEBUTS THIS WEEK

“Dirt” by Florida Georgia Line (#11)

  • Logging the highest debut for a country song in this decade, the Florida Georgia Line boys score another huge hit just as “This Is How We Roll” is about to ebb off of the chart. More ballad-oriented than their arena-thumping previous hits, I don’t think “Dirt” will be able to reach the dizzying heights of “Cruise.” With a debut this high, I anticipate a fall next week. It might hang around the Top 20 for another week or two, but its chart run will certainly be a war of attrition.

“Bo$$” by Fifth Harmony (#43)

  • Spurred by strong first-week digital sales, the “Miss Moving On” quintet reaches their highest rank on the charts yet with the freshly-released single. The female empowerment track has no fewer than 10 name-checks of Michelle Obama and Oprah, so it’s not exactly subtle in its message. It has a decent beat, but red flags go up when a track by a yet-unproven chart act debuts this high. I’m betting on a steep drop-off next week, either into the 90s or entirely off the chart.

“You & I (Nobody In The World)” by John Legend (#66)

  • For someone that’s been around the music industry as long as John Legend, he must know that “All Of Me” will almost certainly be his most notable career achievement. Nonetheless, now is an opportune time to release a few more singles from Love In The Future. First up is “You & I,” which sees a very strong debut thanks to a music video featuring couples of all ages. Music video debuts always see ebbing rankings in their subsequent weeks on the chart, so look for “You & I” to potentially drop off of the Hot 100 next week, or at least fall a considerable number of places.

“Try” by Colbie Caillat (#69)

  • In a very similar manner, Caillat’s latest single debuts thanks to a music video. Borrowing a bit from Fifth Harmony and John Legend, “Try” is a female empowerment ballad featuring women of all ages singing along in the video. Caillat has been in the news lately expressing her outrage with Photoshop’s effect on female body image, so look for “Try” to have some chart legs. I anticipate a decent jump in the next week or two, but the song probably won’t clear the Top 40.

“All About That Bass” by Meghan Trainor (#84)

  • I expected a song with a title like this to be an EDM or dubstep track, but I was proven quite wrong. “All About That Bass” sounds like the musical lovechild of Adele and Amy Winehouse, with a throwback quality that sounds great on the radio. Even better for the 20-year-old Trainor, the song already has a viral hit music video. The sky’s the limit for a song like this, and the music video is just starting to spread its viral wings, so look for “All About That Bass” to have a big jump next week, and potentially make a run for the Top 20.

“Cool Kids” by Echosmith (#87)

  • I’ll be the first to say that I am a huge fan of “Cool Kids.” It reminds me a lot of Foster The People’s first album, and it has the kind of crossover ability that makes indie-pop songs some of the best sleeper hits. All the pieces for a lengthy chart run are in place, although patience will be a virtue. After all, it took “Come With Me Now” nearly four months on the chart to reach the Top 40. I predict a similar chart run for “Cool Kids,” with an upper limit somewhere in the 20s.

“Fight Night” by Migos (#95)

  • I’ve always viewed Migos as more of a novelty act (think “Hannah Montana” and “Versace”), and “Fight Night” doesn’t dispel this notion much. Featuring more comical lyrics and a beat too over-the-top to be considered serious, “Fight Night” probably doesn’t have a bright chart future. It might hang around a bit, but don’t expect it to get any higher than #80.

“Dust” by Eli Young Band (#99)

  • As a follow-up to “Drunk Last Night,” “Dust” is a bit too stuck between uptempo country and pleading ballad to be a major chart factor. Keep in mind that “Drunk Last Night” only reached the 40s on the chart, and that leads me to believe that “Dust” might very well be a one-and-done on the Hot 100. It could potentially re-enter at a later date as the summer winds down.

“Sunshine & Whiskey” by Frankie Ballard (#100)

  • “Helluva Life” was a very modest debut hit for Ballard, and “Sunshine & Whiskey” is more of the same: a feel-good country song with a sunny beat and no over-production. It probably won’t connect as well on the radio, but look for “Sunshine & Whiskey” to make some modest gains in the following weeks, potentially peaking in the 60s.

 

There’s a good mix of genres and potential on the debut list this week. Obviously, “Dirt” has a huge head start, and will remain on the chart for a while forbidding a massive second week dropoff. However, “All About That Bass” and “Cool Kids” stand out to me as the two songs with the potential to be big hits AND long-lasting ones. “All About That Bass” will likely get off to the quicker start with big jumps and then maintaining, but “Cool Kids” could easily be a slow and steady climbing sleeper hit. Keep an eye on both of those tracks in the coming weeks and months.

 

#1 SONGS ON THE GENRE CHARTS

  • POP: Am I Wrong by Nico & Vinz (#4 on Hot 100)
  • COUNTRY: Dirt by Florida Georgia Line (#11 on Hot 100)
  • ROCK: Ain’t It Fun by Paramore (#20 on Hot 100)
  • ALTERNATIVE: Fever by The Black Keys (not currently on Hot 100)
  • R&B/HIP-HOP: Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX (#2 on Hot 100)
  • RAP: Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX (#2 on Hot 100)
  • DANCE/ELECTRONIC: Summer by Calvin Harris (#9 on Hot 100)
  • LATIN: Bailando by Enrique Iglesias (#23 on Hot 100)

FINAL THOUGHTS

That’s all for this week! I’ll be back on Thursday with a look at the next edition of the Hot 100. More predictions and analysis coming at you in a week!

Until then,

Ryan

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s