Billboard Hot 100 Analysis: 7/24/2014

Welcome back for another analysis of the Billboard Hot 100! Here’s all you need to know about the chart released today.

THIS WEEK’S TOP TEN

  1. Rude by MAGIC!
  2. Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX
  3. Stay With Me by Sam Smith
  4. Problem by Ariana Grande f/Iggy Azalea
  5. Am I Wrong by Nico & Vinz
  6. All Of Me by John Legend
  7. Maps by Maroon 5
  8. Wiggle by Jason Derulo f/Snoop Dogg
  9. Latch by Disclosure f/Sam Smith
  10. Summer by Calvin Harris

We’ve settled into another mid-summer slow spot here in the top ten. After hitting #1 last week (a place it likely won’t soon relinquish), “Rude” continues to hold court over the Hot 100. There are no new entries to the highest region this week, and just three songs reach new peaks. Moving 5-3 this week, Sam Smith continues to ride radio airplay towards the summit as “Stay With Me” grabs the Airplay gainer award again. “Rude” will be a hard song to dethrone purely on airplay though, so the odds of Smith hitting #1 aren’t phenomenal (I’d say somewhere around 40%). A little further down, “Maps” pushes forward one spot again, giving it a tidy 9-8-7 progression in the past two weeks. Just below that, “Latch” continues its slow ascent, pushing 10-9 .

 

BIGGEST MOVERS THIS WEEK

30 Spots: All About That Bass by Meghan Trainor (84-54)

20 Spots: Black Widow by Iggy Azalea f/Rita Ora (65-45)

16 Spots: I’m Ready by AJR (81-65)

14 Spots: Try by Colbie Caillat (69-55)

13 Spots: Don’t Tell ‘Em by Jeremih f/YG (71-58)

 

 

  1. I had a hunch last week that “All About That Bass” might be poised for a big music-video inspired boost, and that certainly played out. The big question now is whether that positive momentum will continue forward and grant Trainor her first Top 40 hit.
  2. Despite the lack of a music video, “Black Widow”‘s digital sales have been formidable, and two consecutive 20+ spot jumps have rapidly moved Azalea’s latest hit from #97 to the brink of the Top 40.
  3. Originally getting airplay on XM radio stations last year, AJR’s Spongebob-influenced track has crossed over to official pop airplay, and is responding well after a few weeks laboring in the 80s.
  4. Again, with a strategically released music video, Caillat’s latest single gets boosts for last week and this week, putting her in good position after just two weeks on the Hot 100.
  5. Jeremih has once again found a way out of ignominy to score his biggest hit in 3 years. In 2011, he used 50 Cent to make “Down On Me” a huge hit, and he appears to have used YG and DJ Mustard to similar effect with “Don’t Tell ‘Em.”

HOT 100 DEBUTS THIS WEEK

“Everything I Didn’t Say” by 5 Seconds Of Summer (#24)

  • I think I can finally say that the last of these high debuts from 5SOS is upon us, now that the actual album they preview has been released. As such, some (if not all) of these tracks will re-enter again next week once album sales are reflected on the chart. Thus, “Everything I Didn’t Say” might actually last two weeks on the charts, breaking the streak of three or four consecutive one-and-dones for the group.

“Word Crimes” by Weird Al Yankovic (#39)

  • Owning the #1 album in the country currently, Yankovic continues to prove that even after 30+ years, his is the only name associated with the elaborate art of parody pop music. Taking on “Blurred Lines” with impeccable production and a witty take on grammar in the age of texting, Yankovic earns his first charting single since “White And Nerdy” stormed the Top 10 in 2006. With his music videos going viral on YouTube right now, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this song hang on for another week or two, albeit at a lower position than its current peak. In addition, songs like “Foil” (parodying “Royals”) or “Tacky” (“Happy”) might find their way onto the Hot 100 in similar fashion.

“Roller Coaster” by Luke Bryan (#88)

  • Proving that he can get just as much legwork out of an album as any Taylor Swift offering, Luke Bryan places his fifth single from Crash My Party on the Hot 100. The title track was released in April of 2013, and the four preceding single have all reached the Top 40, so I think it’s fair to say that this balladic track will fare similarly well. It might not reach the Top 20 like “Crash My Party,” “That’s My Kind Of Night,” or “Play It Again,” but I think a peak in the 30s is a pretty sure bet.

“Lifestyle” by Rich Gang f/Young Thug & Rich Homie Quan (#89)

  • Rich Gang is a mega supergroup collaboration of Young Money and Cash Money recording artists. If you thought “BedRock” had a lot of artists on it, then the amount of Rich Gang members will astound you. They had a minor hit last year with “Tapout”, and this project by Birdman looks like it’s carrying over into 2014. Young Thug and Rich Homie Quan are coming off of big debut tracks in “Stoner” and “Type of Way” respectively, so they are more than justified in their inclusion this time around. Young Money (with only half the members!) only reached #50 this year with “Trophies”, so expect a similarly disappointing result from “Lifestyle.” I can’t see this track peaking any higher than #60.

“Hideaway” by Kiesza (#97)

  • As songs like “La La La,” “Love Me Again,” and “Rather Be” have proven this year, going to #1 in the UK is a good prerequisite for having a sleeper hit here in the States. “Hideaway” hopes to have a similar trajectory, as it debuted at #1 on the British chart back in April. Kiesza is actually Canadian, but she has found her early success on the more house-oriented UK charts. This track reminds me a lot of the dance-infused pop tracks of the late 1990s (La Bouche comes to mind), and Kiesza herself has a voice that reminds me of late 90s Whitney Houston, which make for a formidable combination. “Hideaway” has all the ingredients for a sleeper hit (after all, the much weirder “Latch” found its way into the mainstream), so I think it has the potential to embark on a slow and steady journey towards the Top 30 at least.

 

Only five songs debuted this week, and the two highest debuts are destined for quick drop-offs. That leaves us with perennial hitmaker Bryan, a rap collective whose members number in the dozens (you read that right), and a rising star yet unproven in the US. All three songs very well could peak in the Top 40, but I have my doubts about “Lifestyle.” “Roller Coaster” will almost certainly be a bigger hit immediately, and is the safe pick, but I’d also take a small side bet on “Hideaway” joining the ranks of the Top 40 in time. I have a good feeling about its future in digital sales and on the radio, so we’ll see where Kiesza’s hit is once September rolls around.

 

#1 SONGS ON THE GENRE CHARTS

  • POP: Am I Wrong by Nico & Vinz (#5 on Hot 100)
  • COUNTRY: Dirt by Florida Georgia Line (#20 on Hot 100)
  • ROCK: Ain’t It Fun by Paramore (#28 on Hot 100)
  • ALTERNATIVE: Fever by The Black Keys (not currently on Hot 100)
  • R&B/HIP-HOP: Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX (#2 on Hot 100)
  • RAP: Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX (#2 on Hot 100)
  • DANCE/ELECTRONIC: Latch by Disclosure f/Sam Smith (#9 on Hot 100)
  • LATIN: Bailando by Enrique Iglesias (#17 on Hot 100)

FINAL THOUGHTS

That’s all for this week! I’ll be back on Thursday with a look at the next edition of the Hot 100. More predictions and analysis coming at you in a week!

Until then,

Ryan

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