Billboard Hot 100 Analysis: 7/31/2014

 

Welcome back for another analysis of the Billboard Hot 100! Here’s all you need to know about the chart released today.

THIS WEEK’S TOP TEN

  1. Rude by MAGIC!
  2. Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX
  3. Stay With Me by Sam Smith
  4. Am I Wrong by Nico & Vinz
  5. Problem by Ariana Grande f/Iggy Azalea
  6. Maps by Maroon 5
  7. Latch by Disclosure f/Sam Smith
  8. All Of Me by John Legend
  9. Chandelier by Sia
  10. Summer by Calvin Harris

All the action is in the bottom half of the Top 10 this week! At #6, “Maps” continues its one spot a week pace, and spends the month of July moving 9-8-7-6.

At #7, “Latch” continues to impress by continuing its slow march as arguably the biggest sleeper hit of 2014 thus far.

At #9, 38-year-old Australian singer Sia earns her first Top 10 hit as lead artist, as “Chandelier” bounds into the upper region. In 2012, Sia was featured on Flo Rida’s #5-peaking “Wild Ones” and David Guetta’s #7-peaking “Titanium,” but it is surprising to see her achieve this kind of hit on her own, particularly because she is notorious for shunning the limelight. In fact, when Billboard did a story on her a while back, she appeared in the photo shoot with a brown paper bag over her head to obscure her face. Furthermore, when she performed “Chandellier” on Ellen back in May, she had her back turned to the audience while music video star Maddie Ziegler recreated her famous dance. I guess the success of “Chandelier” just goes to show that sometimes, the more you try to avoid the spotlight, the more easily it finds you.

 

BIGGEST MOVERS THIS WEEK

37 Spots: Come Get It Bae by Pharrell Williams (60-23)

26 Spots: All About That Bass by Meghan Trainor (54-28)

18 Spots: Cool Kids by Echosmith (84-66)

18 Spots: Don’t Tell ‘Em by Jeremih f/YG (58-40)

16 Spots: Black Widow by Iggy Azalea f/Rita Ora (45-29)

 

  1. Spurred by the release of a music video which underscores Miley Cyrus’ contributions to the track, “Come Get It Bae” finally gets the boost it was looking for and rockets into the Top 40
  2. That makes it two weeks it a row that Trainor has jumped over a quarter of the chart with her debut single. If that happens again, “All About That Bass” will be in the Top 2 next week, which sounds a bit far-fetched, so look for her success to continue, but at a more mitigated rate.
  3. After a stagnant second week on the charts, “Cool Kids” is starting to find mainstream crossover potential as it rides a nice jump into its third week.
  4. I wouldn’t have ever expected Jeremih to have a hit in 2014, but I would have said the same thing in 2011 before he made “Down On Me.” “Don’t Tell “Em” becomes his first Top 40 hit in those past three years.
  5. Extremely impressive given that a music video has not yet been released (it’s coming soon, though), “Black Widow” finds itself in the Top 30 after just 4 weeks on the chart. Once the video is released, expect the track to make a serious run at the Top 10 or even the Top 5.

HOT 100 DEBUTS THIS WEEK

“Burnin’ It Down” by Jason Aldean (#12)

  • Featuring the country/hip-hop trend that he started himself with 2011’s “Dirt Road Anthem,” Burnin’ It Down” is a midtempo track with nothing particularly inspiring about it lyrically (just discussing the girl and drink of Aldean’s choice). Nonetheless, the country crowd was clamoring for this track, and it debuted at #1 on the Digital Songs chart. Debuting at #12 here, it equals his fastest start ever (“Take A Little Ride” did the same thing in 2012) and falls just one spot short of Florida Georgia Line’s “Dirt” debut a few weeks ago. “Take A Little Ride” spent 20 weeks on the chart without bettering its debut peak position, so expect a similar trajectory for Aldean’s latest.

“0 To 100 / The Catch Up” by Drake (#63)

  • Drake may just be the busiest man in the rap world, and just because it’s been a year since he started heavily promoting Nothing Was The Same doesn’t mean that he doesn’t have more music to release. With “0 To 100,” Drake recycles the theme (and very nearly the beat) from “Started From The Bottom” to talk about how he gets a leg up on his competition. In the more mellow second half “The Catch Up,” Drake does a little self-boasting, daring other artists to try and match his currently torrid pace. With the abrupt change in style midway, the nearly 5 minute runtime, and the dozen-a-minute profanities (you know which one I mean), I don’t think this track has much airplay potential. That being said, it could model the chart of “Believe Me,” having one nice jump up the chart and then fading slowly.

“Happy Little Pill” by Troye Sivan (#92)

  • It’s been a good summer for young artists on the Hot 100, and the 19-year-old Sivan adds his name to the list with his first chart voyage. The actor/singer from South Africa was a television and film star in his early teen years, but has focused more on music as of recently. “Happy Little Pill” has a dark, Alex Clare-esque vibe to it, and sounds like it will play pretty well in clubs. It has limited sleeper hit potential, but my best bet would be that it doesn’t peak much higher than #75.

“Stolen Dance” by Milky Chance (#95)

  • A viral hit in Europe last summer, “Stolen Dance” became a breakthrough for the German duo Milky Chance. Release on iTunes for free in June, its star is starting to rise here in the States. Featuring a stripped-down feel with a simple beat and syncopated guitar chords, the song has an almost hypnotic quality to it, and I very much enjoy listening to it. It might be a little too minimal for pop radio, but I can see alternative radio eating this song up, similar to “Come With Me Now.” As such, a laborious run towards the Top 40 is possible for “Stolen Dance,” but a disappointing one-and-done is also possible.

 

I think I’m going to have to pick a country song this week. Jason Aldean has been  the most consistent artist in the country music business over the last five years. With the exception of last year’s “1994,” the last time one of his single didn’t make the Top 40 on the Hot 100 was in 2010. With the head start “Burnin’ It Down” has on the rest of the slim competition this week, I don’t see any of the other three songs challenging its peak position. “Stolen Dance” may have some legs on the chart, but I don’t see it reaching the Top 20.

 

#1 SONGS ON THE GENRE CHARTS

  • POP: Rude by MAGIC! (#1 on Hot 100)
  • COUNTRY: Burnin’ It Down by Jason Aldean (#12 on Hot 100)
  • ROCK: Ain’t It Fun by Paramore (#35 on Hot 100)
  • ALTERNATIVE: I Wanna Get Better by Bleachers (not currently on Hot 100)
  • R&B/HIP-HOP: Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX (#2 on Hot 100)
  • RAP: Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX (#2 on Hot 100)
  • DANCE/ELECTRONIC: Latch by Disclosure f/Sam Smith (#7 on Hot 100)
  • LATIN: Bailando by Enrique Iglesias (#15 on Hot 100)

FINAL THOUGHTS

  1. I’ve been impressed by country artist Sam Hunt’s debut single “Leave The Night On.” In its five weeks on the chart thus far, it’s done something I don’t recall seeing before, spending one week in the 90s, one in the 80s, one in the 70s, one in the 60s, and spends this week at #53. The streak should endure next week, continuing a very laudable beginning to Hunt’s career in country music.
  2. As “Best Day Of My Life” falls off the chart this week, there are now only five songs remaining that have spent all 32 weeks of 2014 on the Hot 100. Can you name them? Answer below if you want to test yourself.

 

(Dark Horse, All Of Me, Counting Stars, Pompeii, Talk Dirty)

That’s all for this week! I’ll be back on Thursday with a look at the next edition of the Hot 100. More predictions and analysis coming at you in a week!

Until then,

Ryan

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