Billboard Hot 100 Analysis: 8/7/2014

 

 

Welcome back for another analysis of the Billboard Hot 100! Here’s all you need to know about the chart released today.

THIS WEEK’S TOP TEN

  1. Rude by MAGIC!
  2. Stay With Me by Sam Smith
  3. Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX
  4. Am I Wrong by Nico & Vinz
  5. Problem by Ariana Grande f/Iggy Azalea
  6. Bang Bang by Jessie J, Ariana Grande & Nicki Minaj
  7. Maps by Maroon 5
  8. All About That Bass by Meghan Trainor
  9. Chandelier by Sia
  10. Latch by Disclosure f/Sam Smith

A few shakeups occur this week in the Top 10. Moving 3-2, “Stay With Me” continues to close the gape on “Rude,” and sets up what should be some spirited showdowns for #1 in the following weeks.

Bounding 28-8, Meghan Trainor’s viral hit “All About That Bass” takes just four weeks to find itself in the Top 10, on the strength of earning the Digital Gainer award for three consecutive weeks. As digital sales continue to soar, and radio airplay starts to kick in, don’t be surprised to see “Bass” make a run for the top of the charts in the next few weeks.

The big story this week though is the smashing debut of “Bang Bang,” an all-star track featuring equal billing from Jessie J, Ariana Grande, and Nicki Minaj. Its entry at #6 represents the second-highest debut of 2014, behind only Grande’s own “Problem,” which opened at #3. For Jessie J, it equals the peak of “Domino,” her previous career highpoint.

 

BIGGEST MOVERS THIS WEEK

20 Spots: All About That Bass by Meghan Trainor (28-8)

16 Spots: Cool Kids by Echosmith (66-50)

15 Spots: Don’t by Ed Sheeran (84-69)

14 Spots: Amnesia by 5 Seconds Of Summer (81-67)

10 Spots: Black Widow by Iggy Azalea f/Rita Ora (29-19)

 

  1. As I mentioned before, “All About That Bass” scores the Digital Gainer award for a third straight week. If it can duplicate the feat next week, then it will become the first song ever to win the digital battle four weeks in a row.
  2. Following a few quiet weeks at the bottom of the charts, this debut single from the young band of siblings is welcomed to the top half of the chart this week.
  3. Following a brief spell of one-and-done tracks, Ed Sheeran seems to have found a second single from X which might have the potential to equal the success of “Sing.”
  4. Ditto for 5 Seconds of Summer, who ride the sales of their debut album for a second week. Hoping to become the followup to “She Looks So Perfect,” “Amnesia” starts its long journey back towards reaching its #16 debut peak.
  5. Digital sales continue to spur the growth of “Black Widow.” Once the music video drops on Wednesday, expect the track to make a spirited run towards the Top 10 and give Rita Ora her first trip to the uppermost region of the Hot 100.

HOT 100 DEBUTS THIS WEEK

“Bang Bang” by Jessie J, Ariana Grande & Nicki Minaj (#6)

  • As I mentioned in the first subsection of the chart, “Bang Bang” scores one of the highest debuts of 2014. The song is catchy, but I don’t know if it has the x-factor that “Fancy” or “Problem” does, and that leaves its chart future murky. I know it will have a slight dip next week as sales normalize, so my guess is that it will peak no higher but experience some longevity as it slowly ebbs off the chart.

“It Was Always You” by Maroon 5 (#45)

  • As the second single from V, “It Was Always You” returns to the electropop sound that gave Overexposed so many hits. The song sounds like a slightly harder version of “Love Somebody,” and features a very characteristic post-chorus falsetto hook by Adam Levine. I think this song is a bit more polished than “Maps,” and could have a very successful chart run. Maroon 5 have racked up six consecutive Top 10 singles, and “It Was Always You” should continue that trend. It might have a slight dropoff in Week 2 (as most lofty debuts do), but look for it to be a more-than-worthy successor to “Maps.”

“Girl In A Country Song” by Maddie & Tae (#71)

  • Fed up with the male dominance of country music these days (which I too have noticed), this newcomer duo airs their grievances in this parody of sorts. Lyrically sampling several of the past year’s country hits about girls, beer, and trucks, the girls in this song assure us that they don’t want to be the “girl in a country song.” This track is very witty and well-made, complete with a viral music video that outlines their observations aptly. That being said, country music supremacy is won on the radio, and this might not be able to grab the airplay needed to last. It’s a good song, but it might be destined for a one-and-done.

“Chasing The Sun” by Hilary Duff (#79)

  • Now here’s someone we haven’t seen in a while. The former teen idol is now married with a child, but her comeback single has spurred a lot of internet attention. As such, “Chasing The Sun” becomes her first entry on the Hot 100 since “With Love” hit #24 in 2007. “Chasing The Sun” sounds a bit like a latter-day Sheryl Crow song to me, but that fits her more mature brand well, while still having the sunny appeal which made her popular in the first place. I think that the novelty of this song is its only noteworthy feature though, so look for this to be either a one-and-done or a two or three week tumble.

“This Is How We Do” by Katy Perry (#88)

  • After “Birthday” failed to become the big hit Perry had hoped, she immediately tries again with “This Is How We Do.” It’s lyrically a sequel of sorts to “Last Friday Night,” describing the wild partygoing ways of her and her “crew.” Sonically, it sounds a bit derivative of Ke$ha, with a harder sound and some sprechensang thrown in for good measure. Perry hasn’t had a song miss the Top 20 since 2009, so her star power could drive this track easily. I see it peaking somewhere in the teens, so look for some big jumps in the next few weeks.

“Hot Boy” by Bobby Shmurda (#96)

  • I really have nothing to say about “Hot Boy” other than it’s a very generic rap song without the benefit of a DJ Mustard production. The song has charted due to its popularity on Vine, specifically the “Shmoney dance” which it made popular. I don’t see a viral song like this peaking much higher than #90, and it could easily be a one-and-done.

“No Flex Zone!!” by Rae Sremmurd (#98)

  • Speaking of viral hits, “No Flex Zone” is everything the title leads you to believe: a rap song telling you not to flex. Rae Sremmurd is not someone’s name, but rather “ear drummers” spelled backwards. This Atlanta duo is receiving some airplay and a lot of YouTube views from this breakout hit, and its Mike-Will-Made-It-produced hook is admittedly catchy. That being said, I can’t see it peaking higher than #70, but it could stick around for a while.

“I Will Never Let You Down” by Rita Ora (#99)

  • Not content with just her featured credit on “Black Widow,” Rita Ora debuts with a lead single of her own. “I Will Never Let You Down” is a Calvin Harris-produced smash with an electrifying rise and fall to it, culminating in a thumping “Last Friday Night”-esque chorus made for the dancefloor. The track has peaked at #1 in the UK, so its chart future in the USA is a lot stronger than its #99 debut might suggest. Look for it to steadily rise up the Hot 100, not in leaps and bounds, but in a measured manner as airplay begins to embrace the track.

 

I see four potential hits when I look at the debuts this week. “Bang Bang” has already secured its hit status. “It Was Always You” had a strong debut and figures to expand upon that in the coming weeks. And lower down, “This Is How We Do” and “I Will Never Let You Down” figure to be dance-pop smashes that light up pop radio in the coming months. Thus, I can’t really single out one particular song for the most potential, but I will say this. Look for “This Is How We Do” to make the first move, likely with a big jump next week. “Bang Bang” will endure as the top ranker for a while, but Maroon 5 and Rita Ora will take their time to gain ground.

 

#1 SONGS ON THE GENRE CHARTS

  • POP: Rude by MAGIC! (#1 on Hot 100)
  • COUNTRY: Burnin’ It Down by Jason Aldean (#22 on Hot 100)
  • ROCK: Ain’t It Fun by Paramore (#41 on Hot 100)
  • ALTERNATIVE: I Wanna Get Better by Bleachers (not currently on Hot 100)
  • R&B/HIP-HOP: Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX (#3 on Hot 100)
  • RAP: Fancy by Iggy Azalea f/Charli XCX (#3 on Hot 100)
  • DANCE/ELECTRONIC: Latch by Disclosure f/Sam Smith (#10 on Hot 100)
  • LATIN: Bailando by Enrique Iglesias (#13 on Hot 100)

FINAL THOUGHTS

 

That’s all for this week! I’ll be back on Thursday with a look at the next edition of the Hot 100. More predictions and analysis coming at you in a week!

Until then,

Ryan

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