Billboard Hot 100 Analysis: 9/25/2014

Welcome back for another analysis of the Billboard Hot 100! Here’s all you need to know about the chart released today.

THIS WEEK’S TOP TEN

  1. All About That Bass by Meghan Trainor
  2. Shake It Off by Taylor Swift
  3. Bang Bang by Jessie J, Ariana Grande & Nicki Minaj
  4. Anaconda by Nicki Minaj
  5. Black Widow by Iggy Azalea f/Rita Ora
  6. Stay With Me by Sam Smith
  7. Break Free by Ariana Grande f/Zedd
  8. Boom Clap by Charli XCX
  9. Chandelier by Sia
  10. Don’t Tell ‘Em by Jeremih f/YG

After the three consecutive weeks of shakeups in the Top 10, we’ve been granted a bit of a reprieve this week without too many dramatic storylines. Leading the way again is “All About That Bass” for a third consecutive week, although “Shake It Off” hovers dangerously close again at #2.

Rising 5-3 this week, “Bang Bang” reaches a new peak. This is noteworthy because the track debuted at #6 a while back. When songs debut that high, they usually start a downward trend, often unable to match the initial success of their introduction to the charts. Despite being all over the charts in the past year, Ariana Grande still has no claim to a #1 single, so this could be her best shot at that distinction in 2014.

The biggest story this week however is “Don’t Tell ‘Em”‘s jump from 12-10. Jeremih gets his third career Top 10 single, as well as his first such hit in over three years. This song came out of nowhere, but is a continued testimony to the power DJ Mustard has on hip-hop radio. For the superstar producer, it represents his first trip to the Top 10.

 

BIGGEST MOVERS THIS WEEK

15 Spots: Fireball by Pitbull f/John Ryan (46-31)

15 Spots: Trumpets by Jason Derulo (48-33)

12 Spots: Angel In Blue Jeans by Train (91-79)

 

  1. One of the catchier songs of late summer, Pitbull’s more-acoustic single has lodged itself in people’s heads. A music video also just dropped, so that also attributes to the song’s jump this week.
  2. After spending its first four months languishing in the bottom third of the Hot 100, “Trumpets” patiently waited out the decline of “Talk Dirty” and “Wiggle.” It’s now gaining momentum as the third successful Talk Dirty single, and is an antidote of sorts for the shock value of the prior two hits.
  3. Just when you think Train can’t possibly remain relevant in the pop scene, they release a new album filled with catchy radio-ready hits. “Angel In Blue Jeans” is the first such single from their newest album Bulletproof Picasso, and it is on its way to become the band’s next “Drive By” or “50 Ways To Say Goodbye”.

HOT 100 DEBUTS THIS WEEK

“Booty” by Jennifer Lopez f/Iggy Azalea or Pitbull (#18)

  • On the actual AKA album, Pitbull features on the rap verse in “Booty.” However, Iggy Azalea takes over for Mr. 305 in the music video version, in which she plays an even larger role. Showcasing their rumps for the world to see, J. Lo and Iggy aren’t afraid to shake their booties while singing about them, and the public has reacted strongly, giving the video millions and millions of views in its first week on YouTube. For Lopez, it’s her second-highest debut, after “On The Floor” in 2011. Its success on YouTube will keep it sticking around, but I don’t see “Booty” peaking much higher than its debut position of #18.

“Gonna Know We Were Here” by Jason Aldean (#63)

  • As we’ve seen with several artists this year, Jason Aldean has been slowly revealing the tracks on his newest album, by releasing one promotional single a week. These songs have been debuting relatively well, but “Burnin’ It Down” has been the only one to stick thus far. I don’t see “Gonna Know We Were Here” faring any better than the one-and-dones that have preceded it.

“No Love” by August Alsina (#73)

  • Making his first Hot 100 appearance since “I Luv This Sh*t” last winter, August Alsina returns with a fairly straight-forward R&B track that features a singing/rapping turn from Nicki Minaj in the second half. It seems like these songs are a dime a dozen these days, but Minaj is a hot commodity right now, so that could help “No Love'”s prospects. I could see this track peaking somewhere in the 50s.

“Sun Daze” by Florida Georgia Line (#83)

  • After slowing things down a bit with the heartfelt ballad “Dirt,” Florida Georgia Line returns to the formula that made them the biggest names in country music today. “Sun Daze” has copious alcohol references, and glides through its runtime with peppy and laid-back rhythms. This song is better suited for the summer, but it still is almost guaranteed to be a hit on country radio. Look for it to peak somewhere in the lower 20s.

“Superheroes” by The Script (#88)

  • It’s been a while since The Script showed up on the Hot 100. But, in the style of “Breakeven,” “For The First Time,” and “Hall Of Fame,” they  return with little deviation from the “dramatic soft rock” style they helped popularize. “Superheroes” isn’t a particularly unique or interesting song, but adult contemporary radio should get some airplay out of it, so look for it to peak in the 50s or 60s.

“X” by Chris Brown (#98)

  • Whereas  “Loyal” is a club-friendly all-star track, and “New Flame” is a more traditional ballad, the titular track from Brown’s latest album hearkens back to the EDM-influenced sound of his 2012 album Fortune. “X” starts off sounding like a ballad, before building steadily to a drop which lacks the energy of his bigger hits like “Don’t Wake Me Up”. “New Flame” is the current song climbing the charts, and the debut of on the albums chart is the likely reason for this song’s placement this week, so I could easily see this being a one-and-done scenario.

“You And Your Friends” by Wiz Khalifa f/Snoop Dogg & Ty Dolla $ign (#99)

  • Riding the success of “We Dem Boyz” over the summer, Wiz Khalifa recruited a few friends for the followup single. Ty Dolla $ign sings the chorus, Snoop Dogg lends a verse, and DJ Mustard glues it all together in a fun and catchy rap number which is Khalifa’s specialty. It might not get as high as “We Dem Boyz,” but I could see it peaking in the 50s.

 

“Booty” got off to a large head-start this week, and figures to be the highest-peaking song of the bunch this week. However, Florida Georgia Line has not had a dud single to their credit yet, and it would be imprudent to think otherwise for “Sun Daze.” So J. Lo and Iggy Azalea might score the highest chart position, but look for “Sun Daze” to be the track with the most upward mobility and longevity in the coming weeks.

 

#1 SONGS ON THE GENRE CHARTS

  • POP: All About That Bass by Meghan Trainor (#1 on Hot 100)
  • COUNTRY: Burnin’ It Down by Jason Aldean (#20 on Hot 100)
  • ROCK: Habits (Stay High) by Tove Lo (#13 on Hot 100)
  • ALTERNATIVE: Stolen Dance by Milky Chance (#58 on Hot 100)
  • R&B/HIP-HOP: Anaconda by Nicki Minaj (#4 on Hot 100)
  • RAP: Anaconda by Nicki Minaj (#4 on Hot 100)
  • DANCE/ELECTRONIC: Break Free by Ariana Grande f/Zedd (#7 on Hot 100)
  • LATIN: Bailando by Enrique Iglesias (#15 on Hot 100)

FINAL THOUGHTS

  1. This could easily be the last week in the Hot 100 for “Loyal” and “Counting Stars”, two of just five currently-charting songs to have spent 35+ weeks on the chart in 2014. This would leave just two songs next week that have still spent every calendar week this year on the Hot 100. “Radioactive” spent all 52 weeks on the chart in 2013, but it’s looking like no song will be able to match that feat this year.

That’s all for this week! I’ll be back on Thursday with a look at the next edition of the Hot 100. More predictions and analysis coming at you in a week!

Until then,

Ryan

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s